This video footage shows a damaged building in the Belgorod region of Russia, May 22, 2023. AP
When will the Ukrainian counteroffensive be launched? When will the troops in Kiev be ready for a frontline attack? Since the end of winter, military analysts have been studying the smallest incidents in order to get a clear insight into the strategy of the Ukrainian General Staff, which has managed to keep its operations secret for more than a year. “The spectrum of possibilities is very large. It is difficult to determine where and when the Ukrainians will launch their axes of attack,” said Thibault Fouillet, a military affairs specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
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The only thing that is certain is that the Ukrainians are actively preparing the ground for their operations. Attacks on Russian logistics equipment have been increasing for several weeks, especially in depth, that is, in the rearmost areas of the front. Day and night in the occupied territories, but also on Russian soil, fuel and ammunition depots, railway junctions, telecommunications infrastructure, command posts and even soldiers’ quarters are being attacked by Ukrainian grenades, rockets and drones.
This use of artillery, called “shaping” in military jargon, is a prerequisite for any major offensive. Its main objective is to weaken the enemy by destroying their support systems or forcing them to retreat very far from the front lines. In this regard, the Russian military doctrine, which favors the use of railways rather than highways to supply troops, is not without benefits for Ukrainians. “A railway line is easier to destroy than a road and more difficult to repair,” says a military source.
Long-range missiles and sabotage operations
To carry out this “modeling”, the Ukrainians have Western equipment such as Himars rocket launchers that can reach targets up to 70 kilometers away, with GLSDB-guided bombs even 150 kilometers away. Better yet, you’ve just received the British Storm Shadow air-to-surface missiles, whose range exceeds 250 kilometers. The first uses of these projectiles were observed, in particular, in Luhansk, in the Donbass or at an air base in Berdyansk near Mariupol.
There is also an increase in acts of sabotage by Ukrainian partisans who have penetrated the occupied territories or Russian soil.
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