Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola explains to Fanpage.it how the war in Ukraine could change after Western countries sent heavy tanks to Kyiv and why a counter-offensive by Ukraine against the Russians in the spring cannot be ruled out.
Interview with Giampaolo DiPaola
Admiral of the Italian Navy, Former Defense Chief of Staff and Former Defense Minister.
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After months of vigorously asking Ukraine for it, Western countries gave it the green light to send it heavy tanks and is now preparing to receive dozens of modern tanks by next spring, which could change the battlefield prospects of the war in Ukraine. These are the famous German-made Leopard 2, but also the US M1 Abrams or other main battle tanks that Western countries are ready to send to Kyiv.
A crucial change of pace in Western strategy, its political as well as military implications However, they all have yet to be deciphered. Zelenskyy had urged tanks in the face of a feared Russian offensive in the spring when, for obvious reasons, the war will turn from a static conflict like the current one with massive bombing raids on both sides into a war of movement, with tanks and combat vehicles dominating. We spoke to about it Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, former Chief of Defense Staff and former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
Ukraine will receive tanks from Western countries. Can deployed tanks really change the course of war and to what extent? However, the disparity between forces and means seems enormous.
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I think that nobody knows and today can say for sure how events on the battlefield will develop from spring and how the war in Ukraine will end. It is true that there is a mismatch of power, but it is also true that this mismatch has not helped the Russians much to date. Nor do we really know exactly how much the Russians have transformed their armed forces, how far they have reorganized, and how far they have regained operational efficiency. So if, on the one hand, there appears to be a superiority in numbers, on the other hand, we don’t know how effective that superiority is. Because the Ukrainians, who were and are in a clear minority, have so far shown that they know how to compensate for this inferiority, also thanks to Western armaments, through the quality of the means, through the quality of the use of these means and with the will and motivation of their men. Ultimately, there is a fundamental difference: Ukrainian soldiers and the Ukrainian people are fighting for their rightful survival, while the Russians are not, and morale in warfare makes a big difference. Not always the strongest, but without the right motivations he won.
Admiral Gianpaolo di Paola
After the tanks, Zelenskyy is now also demanding fighter planes, but isn’t there a danger of escalation with this continuous shipment of vehicles by Western countries?
We are in a transition phase on the planes and it is not certain that this will happen and Germany has indeed said a firm no. That being said, it seems to me that while Americans and Westerners in general are fully supportive of Ukraine, they are always careful not to cross the line of direct confrontation with Russia. Everything will also depend on developments in the transfer of new equipment and how the situation on the battlefield will evolve from this static phase to a more dynamic phase, which is expected in the spring. However, the Western strategy is clear: not only must Ukraine not lose, but Putin must lose. What that means remains to be seen. The West is obviously ready to give the necessary weapons to Ukraine to regain as much of its territory as possible, but the word escalation doesn’t seem quite right to me. We are at war here, Ukraine wants to win, and we Westerners want Ukraine to win, and that means reclaiming the territory that rightfully belongs to her.
As for Italy, he is pushing for the delivery of SAMP-T anti-aircraft missile systems to Kyiv. Will Italy get more involved in the conflict in Ukraine?
It seems to me quite clear that Italy is ready to supply these weapon systems to Ukraine. Even if the government decrees are classified, the signals are clear in this sense and Italy will give them the SAMP/T. On the other hand, the Prime Minister will certainly not go empty-handed during the visit of Prime Minister Meloni to Kyiv planned for the next few days, and SAMP-T will be one of the strengths of Italy’s availability.
The Russians are initially responding with a heavy rocket launch, but is a full-scale offensive conceivable in the spring?
From the standpoint of military logic, it is reasonable to assume that if the Russians have managed to rebuild their forces over the past few months, they will attempt an offensive to consolidate their positions. However, like the rest, it is possible that the Ukrainians will try a counter-offensive or an offensive to regain territory in the hands of the Russians. I believe that the Ukrainians have the motivation to resist the Russian invasion and also to retake large parts of their territory. The battlefield will tell us how much of this territory can be reclaimed. What is certain is that in the spring we will move from trench warfare to mobile warfare and dynamic confrontation, in which armored and mechanized vehicles will be more decisive.