As Ukraine keeps Russia at a distance longer than many US officials expected, President Biden now faces a big unanswered question – how to allow Vladimir Putin to deviate to avoid an even bigger disaster.
Why it matters: Pushed into a corner, humiliated Putin can unleash indescribable pain in the world, from cyberattacks to nuclear threats. After imposing brutal sanctions, the White House must now consider how the invasion could end without another catastrophe.
Between the lines: No one knows what Putin would accept.
- Many officials fear that we are heading for a very dangerous period – punitive Western sanctions are pushing an autocrat into a corner.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Deputy chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, hinted that Putin could be added.
- “This is the most dangerous moment in 60 years,” Rubio said tweets Sunday night. Putin, he said, “is facing a humiliating military fiasco, and it has had extraordinary consequences for Russia’s economy and people, which will not be easy to turn around … And his only chances of restoring that imbalance are catastrophic.”
European diplomat told reporters at a briefing yesterday: “It’s like giving Sun Tzu someone a golden bridge to retire through. How do you get him to go the other way?”
- “I think the door to diplomacy remains open,” the diplomat continued. “Putin … usually doesn’t back down. But he also controls the information environment in his own country to such an extent that if he does, he can cover his tracks … So I think there is room for him to de-escalate – and this is certainly what we are pushing for. “
The diplomat pointed out Yesterday’s peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus as the most viable diversion in the sea of bad options, noting that the talks lasted four hours and seem to be aimed at a second round.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said before the talks that he was ready to discuss Ukraine’s “neutral status” – one of Putin’s three demands.
- But the other two – the demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine and the recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea – suggest that Putin will never accept a deal in which Zelensky remains in power.
Bottom row: The West’s response to Putin – so long, uncertain and halting – has been moving at an astonishing rate and ferocity over the past week. The way Putin will respond – and whether de-escalation is even possible – is to keep national security leaders awake at night.
Go deeper: Control panel of Axios Ukraine