What’s at stake in the SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama?
Dan Wolken and Paul Myerberg explain why this game will be so important for both teams to advance in the College Football Playoff.
One team has already qualified for the College Football Playoff.
Washington capped an undefeated regular season with a thrilling 34-31 win over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game and is guaranteed to finish somewhere in the top four of the final playoff rankings depending on how things shake out in the rest of the Power Five .
The second win of the season against the Ducks is the ultimate response to doubters who squandered the Huskies’ chances in this game and a spot among the Bowl Subdivision’s elite teams.
In case it wasn’t clear, Washington is a deserving playoff team and a dangerous matchup for any team in the semifinals.
Quarterback Michael Penix completed 27 of 39 attempts for 319 yards and a touchdown and scored two huge touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to reverse Oregon’s 24-20 lead. Washington led 20-3 in the second quarter but was in danger of letting the Pac-12 championship slip away before the offense could reassert itself against the Ducks’ weakened defense.
All that remains to be decided is where the Huskies land in the final rankings, which depends on how things shake out in the SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama and the Big Ten Championship between Michigan and Iowa. Regardless, Washington will become the first Pac-12 team to reach the playoffs since the Huskies did so under former coach Chris Petersen in 2016.
Also on Friday, Liberty defeated New Mexico State 49-35 to clinch the Conference USA championship. The Flames are one of just a small handful of undefeated teams in the Bowl Subdivision and a contender to advance from the Group of Five to the New Year’s Six, but as we’ll see, there’s a hurdle of teams standing in their way.
What Washington’s win means for the playoffs
Washington has had a perfect regular season in one of the FBS’ top leagues and can sit back and wait to see how the rest of the Power Five landscape plays out during Saturday’s games.
The only question is where the Huskies will end up: No. 1 or as low as No. 3. There’s no chance Washington will drop to No. 4 with a second win against the Ducks.
Reaching No. 1 requires two upsets: Alabama over Georgia and Iowa over Michigan. The Huskies will likely stay at No. 3 if both favorites win, although beating Oregon twice could be enough for the committee to push them over the Wolverines.
Then it’s a question of matchups. The most likely scenario is that Michigan will play as a second or third seed in the Rose Bowl, the earlier of the two semifinals on New Year’s Day.
Should Michigan lose and Florida State win, the Huskies would move up to No. 2 and face the Seminoles. In the scenario where the Tide, Hawkeyes and Seminoles win and knock UW into the No. 1 spot, the matchup would be against Texas, Georgia or Michigan.
Michael Penix and the Heisman Trophy
Penix was the Heisman front-runner for a good portion of the regular season before losing control in November, and as of Friday night was ranked third in the pecking order behind Oregon QB Bo Nix and LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. Victory should change things.
But maybe not enough. Penix was very solid in the first half but less strong in the second, and he probably would have needed a more comprehensive, insightful game to make up ground he ceded to Nix and Daniels.
The good news is that Heisman voters probably can’t vote for Nix over Penix given the Huskies’ two straight wins this season. Assuming that many voters hadn’t already cast their ballots before the weekend, which is always possible.
The bad news for Penix is that Daniels isn’t going anywhere. For those torn between Nix and Daniels, Friday’s result may not mean Penix’s choice, but rather that the LSU senior is the obvious Heisman choice.
Can Washington win the national championship?
Any team that can beat Oregon once or even twice is good enough to beat any neutral-field opponent and win the national championship.
This second win dispels the idea that the earlier home victory was the result of coaching decisions by Dan Lanning or the fact that the Ducks were caught on a bad day. Washington was the more aggressive team and was very effective at the point of attack, disproving the misconception that Oregon would be the more physical team on the offensive line.
Overall, this performance should open some eyes. Far more than just a borderline upset – Oregon was more than a touchdown favorite despite the previous loss – the win should lead to a reassessment of the Huskies’ chances against opponents like Georgia, Michigan or Texas.
Let’s wait and see who Washington draws in the semifinals and, if they’re lucky, in the championship game. But there’s no doubt the Huskies have the offense, quarterback, coaching staff and attitude to shine on college football’s biggest stage against some of the sport’s biggest brands.
Will Liberty prepare a New Year’s Six bowl?
Even after the win against New Mexico State, the chances are slim. While a win against the Aggies will help boost Liberty’s standing with the selection committee, the Flames are still eyeing the winner of the American, especially if Tulane beats SMU in the conference championship game.
While SMU was left out of the final playoff rankings, the Mustangs are expected to advance ahead of Liberty if they beat the Green Wave.
Essentially, the Flames did everything they could during the regular season and will still fall short of the New Year’s Six. This is not due to bias or lack of thought on the part of the committee, but rather a reflection of Liberty’s extremely weak schedule.
The Flames did not play a Power Five opponent and had six wins against bowl teams, two of them against the Aggies. Outside of NMSU, the team’s best win is either Jacksonville State or Bowling Green. That’s not nearly enough to justify a lead over the AAC champion.