EXPLAINER
Former Prime Minister Robert Fico is expected to replace a technocrat government that backed Kiev against the Russian invasion.
Former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s left-wing populist party has won parliamentary elections in Slovakia and is running a campaign with two clear messages: no more military support for Ukraine and no more sanctions against Russia.
Fico’s Smer-SD party won nearly 23 percent of the vote and received the president’s nod on Sunday to begin talks on replacing a technocrat government that has backed Kiev against the Russian invasion.
The parties expected to join the new coalition are the left-wing Hlas (Voice), which received 14.7 percent of the vote, and the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, a clearly pro-Russian group, which received 5.6 percent.
The Progressive Slovakia party, a liberal, pro-Western newcomer, was a distant second with 18 percent of the vote. Its leader Michal Simecka, deputy president of the European Parliament, said his party respected the result.
“But it’s bad news for Slovakia,” he said. “And it would be even worse if Robert Fico managed to form a government.”
No more help for Ukraine?
Slovakia is a member of the NATO military alliance that is supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin, but many of its population are sympathetic to Moscow’s line that the West wants to destroy them.
Fico, 59, said Slovakia had bigger problems than the Ukraine issue, including energy prices and the cost of living, but his party would do everything it could to start peace talks. During his campaign, Fico promised to stop supporting neighboring Ukraine in its war against Russia.
“We are not changing our willingness to help Ukraine in a humanitarian way,” said Fico, who analysts say is inspired by Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has frequently clashed with the EU.
“We are ready to help rebuild the state, but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine,” he added at a news conference.
In the past, Fico has spoken out against Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO, saying it would “mean the start of World War III.”
“The war in Ukraine didn’t start a year ago, it started in 2014, when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in Donbass and Luhansk,” he said in August.
“We must tell the whole world: Freedom comes from the East, war always comes from the West.”
Fico, second from left, celebrates election victory at the party headquarters in Bratislava [Omas Benedikovic/AFP]Until now, Slovakia – a country of 5.5 million people founded in 1993 after the breakup of Czechoslovakia – has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine.
Since the war began in February last year, Bratislava opened its borders to the fleeing refugees and has been a key logistical hub for NATO’s efforts to transport military support to Ukraine.
Slovakia – one of Kiev’s five largest European donors in terms of gross domestic product – donated more than half of its MiG fighter jets and dozens of infantry vehicles. It was the first EU country to support Kiev with an anti-aircraft missile system, the S-300.
“The [military support] ends with the outcome of the elections,” said Wojciech Przybylski, political analyst and head of think tank Visegrad Insight.
“And there will be questions from Ukraine and its Western allies about how much intelligence information can be shared with Slovakia without risking leaks and jeopardizing transport routes,” Przybylski said.
Such a change in Slovak policy, Przybylski added, will have political implications as it breaks the previous united front of European countries in supporting Kiev.
An Orbanization of Slovakia?
Fico’s critics fear that his return to power could lead to Slovakia abandoning its course in other ways, especially in the spirit of Hungary’s Orbán, who also behaved as an outsider when it came to Ukraine and was often involved because of the war the EU is arguing.
Orban congratulated Fico on Sunday with a post on the social media platform X that said: “Guess who’s back!”
“It’s always good to work with a patriot,” he added.
Hungary also maintained close relations with Moscow – unique among EU countries – and spoke out against arms deliveries to Ukraine or economic aid.
Fico, who campaigned strongly against immigration in the run-up to Saturday’s election and criticized an interim government for not doing more, said resuming border controls with Hungary would be a top priority.
“One of the government’s first decisions must be an order to renew border controls with Hungary,” Fico said at a news conference. “It won’t be a pretty picture,” he said, adding additional force would be needed along the 655 km (407 mile) border.
Przybylski said Fico would likely push anti-immigrant policies to appeal to the working class, which perceives migrants as competition for labor.