BOSTON — At this point in the season, we all know what to expect. Teams have formed their identities and players have declared who they are.
But Joel Embiid’s status for this series is unknown. He’s officially doubtful for Game 1 with a sprained LCL. Talking to people in the league, expectations range from he’ll play in Game 1 to maybe be ready for Game 3 if he’s lucky. The consensus is there is no consensus but the Celtics need to prepare for anything.
“I’m not sure. I think we’ll see,” said Jaylen Brown when asked if the Sixers would move without Embiid. “We’ve watched a few games and stuff like that with him. But they’re definitely preparing prepare to have him.”
James Harden told reporters at practice on Sunday that they were hoping to get Embiid back in time for Game 1. Doc Rivers said Embiid is still doubtful but is improving every day. Despite being out there getting shots, Embiid didn’t exactly look like someone heading for a playoff game in 24 hours.
Regardless of who the Celtics face on Monday, Joe Mazzulla’s coaching doctrine is based on humility and awareness. That’s something the Celtics got a heavy dose of in Game 5 vs. Atlanta. Dejounte Murray’s suspension took Atlanta’s roster to a new level and the lead was so narrow that it took only a couple of poor possessions at crucial times for the game to slip away from the Celtics.
“That’s what the playoffs are about, dealing with adversity,” Brown said. “We’re going to take the best shots of the teams, other players showing their performance. We need to download that information, learn from it, and we will.”
Well, that data better not be buffered when this series flips. So what does that streak look like if Embiid is unable to play on Monday, and how are the Celtics preparing for his potential return?
Boston’s offensive freedom
Embiid’s absence is felt most clearly on defense, as Philadelphia guards have no choice but to direct the action on him and let him shoo the ball away. At his most basic, Embiid is in the drop at the free throw line and nobody in the world wants to match him.
Sometimes he gets up to touch the screen layer and they switch and zone, but with Embiid it’s mostly the drop. Without him they will play faster and more aggressively. Atlanta has sometimes caught the Celtics off guard with that pressure, so they need to play it safe without stagnating.
“You just have to understand who they are when he’s not in the game, whether it’s eight minutes, ten minutes or 48 minutes,” said Joe Mazzulla. “They have a really good team that has an identity when he’s not there so we need to make sure we understand those tendencies and that we have details.”
The lineup of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker had a net rating of plus 10.2 in 95 minutes in the regular season, so they know how to make that work.
The Sixers started Paul Reed in the five against the Nets and kept Tucker in the four in Embiid’s absence, which they may hold onto so Tucker can set the tone early to guard Jayson Tatum. That’s ideal for Boston as either Reed stays in the drop or Philadelphia surrounds everything and the Jays can put Reed on an island.
Reed dropped a lot against the Nets, but that was against a rolling big in Nic Claxton versus a spacer in Al Horford. In the fourth quarter there is a change and the Celtics can feast. Harden is the obvious target, but not to get him into space.
He has more trouble reading properly and making an effort when trying to follow the flow of the plot. As such, the easiest way to get an advantage is to get Reed on the ball and Harden on a reel. It just isn’t the same game as Embiid, although even that can’t stem Harden’s efforts to defend something that isn’t directly in front of him.
“Obviously it’s definitely two different teams,” said Malcolm Brogdon. “The team without, I think, games he hasn’t played is 12-5, so even without him on either side of the ball they’re a really good team. Without him, defensively, I think everyone protects a little bit better. You don’t have a 7-1 guy on the edge.”
A big advantage will come in session two when Tucker is in the five against Robert Williams III. Williams should be feasting in those minutes, even if Rivers decides to give Montrezl Harrell a shot. Boston has easily scored against him in the pick-and-roll over the years.
This is a big opportunity for Malcolm Brogdon to come downhill and open up his drive-and-kick game. Melton will likely put a lot of pressure on him, but if he can win this fight on attack, he can find Williams on the weak side for easy lobs or open shooters.
“I’m thrilled. Philly is one of the big dogs, so they’re a contender,” Brogdon said. “We respect them with or without Joel. They’re a really good team, so we’re going to come out and play good basketball.”
James Harden. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Spread Sixers
When a team operates around a post-threat, what about without its hub? This is James Harden’s moment to prove he deserves a new Max contract, even at the age of 33.
Philadelphia will spread things out and give him room to drive, so his pull-up game will dictate how much room he can give Maxey and Harris to attack. Since the Celtics don’t need a deep drop without Embiid, Harden won’t be able to roll into the midrange against drop coverage. But he’s had some success this year bulldozing through Derrick White and always stands up for a matchup with Marcus Smart.
Brooklyn didn’t have the offensive versatility to make Philadelphia Embiid’s absence sweat, but the Celtics can rack up 120 points if they find a rhythm. That means Harden has to sport a vintage beard every night.
He needs to find discrepancies and burn them off on pull-ups. He needs to get the Celtics to send help and get the ball out, creating the same 4v3 advantages as Embiid.
“It doesn’t change the way we think. It changes our game plan. It’s a team that’s built around Joel, everything he does,” Brogdon said. “All the isos and just one high score and now that score is going to be a little scattered. Harden will be more aggressive, Maxey will be more aggressive, and then all role types will be more aggressive. They have a lot of good players, so we can’t just focus on one player.”
The obvious concern with Harden is getting your hands stuck in the cookie jar. He’s adept at drawing fouls and the key to this run for Boston is staying out of nasty trouble. The Celtics did well to keep Trae Young off the line in the final series, which may have been the only thing keeping him from averaging 40 points a night.
Part of the reason why the switch with Harden can be ideal is that he’s so good at torturing defenders chasing him across screens since he can catch them on screen to force the foul with ease.
The Celtics will likely press Harden high and help Tucker in the corner to protect the lane a little. Rob Williams had success with that earlier this year and the Celtics have some backside help principles that make it work well.
If Tucker is open in the corner and a shooter like Maxey is close to him at the elbow, Maxey’s defender will switch to Tucker. That gives Tucker’s man time to recover to Maxey, but the Sixers guard is great at attacking those close-outs. Maxey turns games in transition as he can burn anyone to the ground and has good grip to drive through defenses on the move and finish.
“As much as it’s about Harden and Embiid and how good these guys are, Harris and Maxey and Tucker and those guys are really good,” Mazzulla said. “So they’re a balanced team and we just have to make sure we do the details well, keep them off the free-throw line and manage the game.”
Everything shows that if Harden can take over, the Sixers can find ways to unmask the Celtics’ defense. These are the types of actions where Brown and Tatum have stayed behind in the past and left the door open. So the Celtics defense will rely more on everyone being locked in than a defender taking out Harden.
“Anytime you get to that point in the playoffs, it’s always going to be a challenge,” Brown said. “Team schedule for each other. Both teams are physically and mentally exhausted. You just have to find a way to win.”
(Top Photo by Joel Embiid, Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)