To understand how Putin will respond to the outrage forced upon him by the Wagner Group mutiny, it is worth recalling two extremely revealing encounters he had with a radio host named Alexei Venediktov, one of the most independent and astute media commentators in Russia.
At the first meeting, which took place shortly after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Venediktov sat down with Putin for two hours, sipping white wine and discussing the conflict. ‘Then [Putin] says, “Listen, you were a history teacher.” What will they write about me in the textbooks? ‘ Venediktov recalls.
The question was initially unsettling, but he recovers by citing some key events from Putin’s first two terms.
Putin apparently angrily says, “That’s all?” Six years later, in 2014, Venediktov – along with a bevy of other editors – is invited to a meeting with Putin following the annexation of Crimea.
Putin greets everyone in turn, and when he reaches Venediktov, he says, “How about now?” Noticing that Venediktov is completely at a loss, he says, “The textbooks.”
The 24 Hours That Shook Russia: Humiliated, Putin will instinctively launch a purge of his enemies
In the early hours of Saturday morning’s rebellion, Putin delivered an emergency address to the nation in a tone markedly different from anything he had ever said before
Putin described Yevgeny Prigozhin (pictured) – the leader of the Wagner mercenaries – as a “traitor” who “stabbed Russia in the back”.
To say that the Russian star is obsessed with his heritage is a bit like saying that Liverpool fans would love to see Manchester City away from home. And so no one will be upset about the deal with the devil he had to make on Saturday night to prevent Wagner’s troops from reaching Moscow.
In a sense, Putin has won in that he has not lost his throne and defused a full-scale civil war. But that victory came at a huge cost. Putin’s signature demeanor has always been one of macho swagger, and his core appeal is that of the ruthless tough guy ready to fight Russia’s enemies wherever they flex their ugly heads
Putin’s bluster will no doubt continue. But the Wagner mutiny — and Putin’s cowardly capitulation to rebel demands — have shattered his credibility with the Russian people.
In the early hours of Saturday morning’s rebellion, Putin delivered an emergency address to the nation in a tone markedly different from anything he had ever said before.
Yes, he described Yevgeny Prigozhin – the leader of the Wagner mercenaries – as a “traitor” who had “stabbed Russia in the back,” but in an unprecedented move, Putin felt compelled to invoke the idea of Russian national unity .
“We fight for the life and safety of our people; for our sovereignty and independence; for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history,” he said. “This struggle, in which the fate of our people will be decided, requires the union of all our forces; Unity, Consolidation and Responsibility.’
The downplaying of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war is a thing of the past. In Putin’s new narrative, Russia is fighting for its life.
To understand how Putin will respond to the outrage forced upon him by the Wagner group mutiny, it is worth recalling two highly revealing encounters he had with a radio host named Alexei Venediktov (pictured) had, one of Russia’s most independent and insightful media commentators
But the Wagner mutiny shattered Putin’s credibility with the Russian people. Pictured: Military personnel from Wagner Group’s Private Military Company (PMC) pose with a local girl
“We will protect our people and our state from all threats, including internal betrayals,” he promised. “We face a betrayal.”
But just hours after these words, Putin officially pardoned the 25,000 Wagner soldiers who had occupied the headquarters of the Russian Army’s Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don and allowed their leader to be driven into exile.
As Prigozhin’s entourage marched through the streets of Rostov, he was cheered by large crowds who shouted, ‘Wagner! Wagner!’ Hours later, the same crowd taunted Russian police as they drove in to fill the power vacuum.
The cheers for the mutineers and the mockery for the police will reverberate in Putin’s mind today.
After two decades of repression and unrelenting state propaganda, the Russian people have been conspicuously reluctant to take to the streets to protest the war.
But when an armed rebel known for telling the truth to power – including harshly criticizing the Kremlin’s military incompetence – took control of the region’s military headquarters, not only did he face no resistance from the police, the army or the National Guard, but was also enthusiastically celebrated by these local citizens.
Of course, Putin’s instinct will always be to crack down. After all, this is a former KGB man whose trademark is paranoia. What else can he do other than launch a purge of potentially disloyal elements in the army, the security services, and his own government?
There is certainly a precedent. Stalin, whom Putin has re-proclaimed a national hero, launched a purge of the armed forces between 1937 and 1939, executing and imprisoning three out of five marshals, 13 out of 15 army commanders, eight out of nine admirals, and 50 out of 57 army corps commanders, 154 of 186 division commanders, 16 of 16 army commissars and 25 of 28 army corps commissars.
This devastating act of self-harm crippled the Red Army and Navy on the eve of World War II—and, incredibly, further purges of officers followed at the height of the war itself.
For someone like Putin, obsessed with his place in history, the parallel between the Wagner mutiny and the mass exodus from the Tsarist army that led directly to the Russian Revolution will not fail to emerge.
“Intrigues, quarrels and politics behind the backs of the army and the people turned out to be the greatest disaster, the destruction of the army and the state, the loss of huge territories, which led to tragedy and civil war,” Putin told Saturday’s emergency address , commemorating the 1917 teachings.
“Russians killed Russians; Brothers kill brothers. The beneficiaries of this were various political fortune-tellers and foreign powers that divided and tore the country into pieces.
It’s the prospect of a 21st-century version of this bloody, murderous struggle that will keep Putin awake at night.
Stalin (pictured), whom Putin has re-proclaimed as a national hero, initiated a purge of the armed forces in 1937-1939
From his point of view, he wages an apocalyptic struggle against evil forces both outside and inside Russia for the very survival of Russia itself. Some Russians might even agree with him.
But for many members of the country’s elite — mostly well-educated, well-travelled, and highly intelligent people — the truth is clear: Putin has led the country into an unnecessary and disastrous war that will at best leave Russia isolated and an increasingly helpless economic and political vassal of China ; and in the worst case, plunge into chaos and civil war.
Now its last claim to legitimacy – its ability to maintain Russia’s internal security – lies in tatters.
Does this mean that Putin is about to fall? At the moment, that’s unlikely — not least because any new leader would face the economic fallout, anger, and finger-pointing that the end of the war would bring.
Moreover, the Wagner mutiny demonstrated that outside the Kremlin’s political ecosystem there are dangerous ultranationalist forces waiting to violently exploit any disorder in the corridors of power.
However, Putin faces re-election on March 17, 2024. Most Russians assumed he would champion another sanctioned victory that would keep him in power until 2030 when he was 77.
But the Wagner mutiny will have raised serious questions from the silent majority of the elite as to whether he really is the best guarantee of their wealth and status.
He still heads the security forces, which employ 4.5 million people – if you include the police, paramilitary police, FSB security and the military.
The vast majority of them do not fight at the front lines but hold the line against internal unrest. After the turbulent events of the past weekend, her work has become much more difficult.
Owen Matthews is the author of Overreach: The Inside Story Of Putin’s War On Ukraine.