After a poor winter and a market that continues to slow, a record number of real estate agents across Quebec may soon be making the difficult decision to quit the profession.
“Even though we don’t see it yet, it’s something we’re talking about a lot and the industry is certainly anticipating,” notes Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager for Quebec at Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
By the end of April, less than two months from now, the province’s 17,000 real estate agents will have to renew their licenses with the Organisme d’autoréglementation de courtage immobilier du Québec (OACIQ).
An annual ritual
The one-year license costs more than $2,300 for a newbie and $1,900 for an established broker looking to continue trading.
Because the bill is important, this deadline usually provokes reflection—a kind of questioning—about the year ahead in most Quebec agents.
“It’s like the song, ‘Do I quit or do I keep going? Stop, or again? “The choice is certainly not easy,” explains a still undecided broker who wishes to remain anonymous while he arranges his professional future.
Therefore, every year on this date, hundreds of brokers decide to retire. For example, in the spring of 2020, when the health measures related to Covid did not bode well, no fewer than 600 permit holders decided to play it safe by depositing their signs.
The following year, after the market regained strength, half as many withdrew while emerging brokers flocked. For example, Réjean Lavoie of the Cégep de Chicoutimi confirms that admissions to the residential real estate brokerage program have exploded by 16% in the same year.
25% drop in sales expected
That could be very different by the end of April as the resale market continues to experience its worst slump in twenty years, admits the broker and CEO of the Professional Association of Brokers Real Estate of Quebec (APCIQ). Marc Lacasse.
Last Thursday, Desjardins economists also estimated that existing home sales will continue to fall by 25% in 2023, a similar drop to last year. At the same time, prices will continue to fall until the gap from the peak in April 2022 to January widens by 17%.
A thousand disclaimers
The unfavorable context could prompt many professionals to reassess their options, believes Mr. Lacasse, who also notes a 10% drop in enrollments at the College of Real Estate of Quebec.
And this retreat is all the more remarkable given that the profession has welcomed many newcomers in recent years. From the 14,611 brokers it had at the end of 2018, the industry now has a record 16,755, a 15% jump.
“Those who came for the wrong reasons, drawn to the idea of an easy income, don’t always have the mental or financial preparation to see through a weaker period like today,” explains Mr Lacasse.
However, how many of the current brokers will throw in the towel within two months? Difficult to estimate.
Dominic St-Pierre expects their tally to surpass a thousand professionals, almost triple the number recorded last year. But nothing is certain.
The number of brokers has been increasing steadily for several years*
- 2017: 14,336
- 2018: 14,611
- 2019: 14,662
- 2020: 14,772
- 2021: 15,798
- 2022: 16,685
- 2023: 16,755
*Each year on December 31st. For the year 2023, the figure corresponds to data from March 1, 2023.
Source: Quebec Real Estate Brokerage Self-Regulatory Organization (OACIQ)
Another difficult year for real estate in 2023
Decline in the number of transactions – resale market
- 2022: -25%
- 2023: -25%
Lower Average Price (from April 2022 High)
- 2022: -8.1%
- 2023: -8.9%
- Total: -17% (compared to April 2022)
Decline in housing starts
- 2022: -15.8%
- 2023: -20%
Decline in housing starts – rental market
- 2022: -10%
- 2023: -20%
Source: Desjardins Group, Economic Studies