Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, having a cordial relationship with Putin quickly became dangerous – and a legion of European populist conservatives were chastised and weakened by it.
But Orban is an exception.
It has angered its neighbors and sparked a backlash from Ukrainian leaders for what they see as a wishy-washy reaction to the war. By portraying himself domestically as a steady hand between the world’s major powers, he has gained ground against the political opposition in Hungary and boosted his chances of winning a fourth straight term as prime minister in Sunday’s general election.
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That would allow Orban to assert his position as Europe’s powerful anti-immigration provocateur, while deepening the feeling among his critics that he can survive almost anything. It would also complicate the way forward for the European Union, which is trying to maintain a hard line against Moscow — from all 27 members of the bloc — while pressuring Hungary on issues of the rule of law and democratic backsliding.
Many political analysts say that despite his ties to Putin, Orban has been able to thrive precisely because of the autocratic way in which he has transformed Hungarian society during his 12 consecutive years in power. Not only has Orban overhauled the electoral system to give his party a major advantage, but he has also coerced NGOs, used spyware against journalists and dismantled a system of checks and balances. He’s built a pro-government media empire that’s like an echo chamber for his narrative.
And in the midst of the war in neighboring Ukraine, that narrative revolved around security. In TV spots that run even during football matches, Orban has portrayed himself as a smart greybeard whose main goal is to protect Hungarian lives and keep Hungarian troops out of the war.
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Pro-government media have falsely portrayed Orban’s opponent – Peter Marki-Zay, who represents a far-reaching six-party union – as wanting to send soldiers to Ukraine. (Marki-Zay has said that Hungary should follow instructions from NATO, which has insisted on not sending troops.)
“We will not allow the left to drag Hungary into this war,” Orban said in a recent speech. “We will not allow the left to turn Hungary into a military target.”
Referring specifically to Russia, Orban has slammed the invasion as aggression and backed the EU in much of its response. But the country has resisted energy supply sanctions and has not provided military aid to Ukraine.
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Meanwhile, Orban has given a warm welcome to 500,000 Ukrainians fleeing war – a reversal of his stance during an earlier migration crisis when Hungary built a wall in response to people fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.
“He’s a textbook populist,” said Balint Ruff, a political strategist in previous campaigns for the opposition. “He always drives with the majority. A day before the war he was a staunch anti-migrant fighter defending European Christianity. And in one day he became the grey-haired grandpa who welcomes everyone from a war-torn country.”
Ruff said messaging is working.
“This is how modern politics works in an uncontrolled world,” he said.
While Orban’s victory is not certain, experts say his chances have steadily increased in recent months. As recently as December, the race appeared to be a dead heat. Orban’s Fidesz party now has a single-digit lead according to most polls – but that could be crucial because the electoral map has been rigged in Fidesz’ favour. According to the United States’ German Marshall Fund, the opposition would need to win 3 to 5 percent more votes than Fidesz to achieve a parliamentary majority.
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Orban’s base is divided over whether to blame the war on the Kremlin or on NATO intervention – hence the need for his own mixed message. But his opponents still hope he pays a price in the election for his cordial relationship with Moscow, perhaps most notably his welcoming of a Moscow-based development bank with ties to Russian intelligence to move to Budapest.
In Budapest, some local Fidesz campaign posters were defaced with the letter “Z”, a symbol displayed on Russian military vehicles in Ukraine. An opposition billboard shows Orban and Putin together, imploring Orban to “lean close to him” and tell his “friend,” “DO NOT KILL!”
Marki-Zay, who previously won a mayoral election in a city that appeared to be a Fidesz stronghold, has accused Orban of spending 12 years “copying the Putin model” and serving the Kremlin’s interests.
Orban has become a powerful symbol of the global populist movement. Fox News host Tucker Carlson paid his respects during a visit to Budapest last year. Former President Donald Trump backed Orban in January, saying he had “done a strong and wonderful job protecting Hungary”, boosted the economy and “stopped illegal immigration”. And Republicans at the Conservative Political Action Conference are hoping to have Orban as the keynote speaker at their meeting in Budapest next month.
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Should Orban prevail in the elections on Sunday, more tricky decisions lie ahead. Across Europe, the far-right rise has slowed. Neighboring countries, including traditional ally Poland, recently refused to meet in Budapest over what they saw as Hungary’s meager response to the war.
Like Hungary, Poland, with a right-wing populist government before the war, had bitter relations with the European Union. But Poland has used its role as a NATO bulwark – and a main entry point for Ukrainian refugees – to overhaul its relationship with Brussels. Hungary has also gained influence to a lesser extent.
This is crucial as the EU faces a major decision on whether to withhold billions of dollars from Hungary and Poland for breaching the rule of law.
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Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute, said there was “a great danger to trade the short-term unity of war for the long-term unity of the EU as a community of law with integrity”.
“It is very tempting,” she said, “that the EU is trying to sweep this issue under the rug, which it has been doing for many years.”
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also pressured Hungary by name-checking each EU member – mostly applauding their support – before stopping speaking directly to Orban.
“Listen, Viktor, do you know what’s going on in Mariupol?” said Zelensky.
He mentioned visiting Budapest and visiting a memorial – depicting shoes left on the bank of the Danube – dedicated to Hungarian Jews who were shot on the bank.
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“Please, if you can, go to your port,” Zelenskyy continued. “Look at these shoes. And you’ll see how mass killing can happen again in today’s world. … And you hesitate to impose sanctions or not?”
For its part, Poland is calling on the EU to stop imports of Russian oil, coal and gas.
Hungary — with fewer domestic fossil fuel resources than Poland — says it can’t afford to follow suit.
Agoston Mraz, chief executive of pro-government think tank Nezopont, said there was a “Central European imperative to be able to negotiate with Russia to secure energy.”
“It would be a very romantic idea to go your own way in this geopolitical situation,” he said, “but at the same time it would be very stupid.”
Harlan reported from Rome and Matyasovszki from Budapest.