Ukrainian wheat. Unable to export – Reuters
A step away from the 100 days of war (today there are 99), it is now clear that wheat has become a key element in the conflict that erupted on February 24 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If we look at the geopolitical and economic implications at the international level, we can say that the grain issue is even more serious than the gas and oil issue. After all, energy is a potential European emergency, not so much a global one. On the other hand, the “wheat war” threatens to exacerbate the global food crisis, with dramatic repercussions – over 250 million new dead poor by the end of the year – especially in Africa and the Middle East, areas of the world where the alarm has already sounded.
The number of exports and production at risk
What makes the issue of wheat crucial are above all the numbers. Suffice it to say that the two warring countries together account for a third of world exports. Only Ukraine exports a fifth of its wheat and maize production (it’s not called the “granary of Europe” for nothing). The underlying problem is that due to the ongoing conflict, much of Ukraine’s grain has so far been prevented from leaving the country.
Despite the recent openings of Vladimir Putin, the situation has not changed. So much so that the Kremlin announced just yesterday that “no concrete agreements have been reached on the issue of exporting wheat from the Black Sea ports.”
It is estimated that around 25 million tons of wheat from the last harvest are still in the companies’ ports and granaries. The new production could soon add a similar, if not more, quantity. “80% of the arable land has been sown regularly, and the production of 2022 will be comparable to that of 2021, even if there is no fertilizer and fuel for the tractors,” Ukraine’s Foreign Trade Minister Taras Kachka reported in recent days. . We are able to export a comparable quantity of wheat to the whole world as last year, but the problem is that he cannot leave the country ». If the situation did not resolve soon, this grain would be in danger of rotting.
On water or on land: the possible routes
The clearance of ports becomes a crucial factor, also because almost all Ukrainian wheat is exported by sea. There are alternatives, but they are impractical. For example, the idea of exporting Ukrainian wheat from the 4 Danube river ports cannot guarantee monthly shipments of more than 300,000 tons.
The hypothesis put forward by Europe and more generally by the West to allow land transport with rail transit through Romania and Poland has some incompatibilities (different widths of the rails) and several logistical difficulties. Not counting the “political” opportunity to pass trains carrying Ukrainian wheat from Belarus, a country too tuned into Moscow. In short, the alternatives seem to exist only in theory.
Exchange of fees on mines in the Black Sea
The main solution remains the liberation of grain and grain cargoes detained in the Ukrainian ports, starting with that of Odessa. This is where the mine problem in the Black Sea comes into play: For weeks Moscow and Kyiv have been accusing each other of who mined the area and who should therefore take care of the bomb clearance, securing the area and then building a corridor for the passage of “food”. -Create boats.
The mission is particularly complex, despite the agreement still “on the high seas”. Kyiv Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called for an international action to be launched in the Black Sea “with the help of friendly countries ready to send their ships to mine the waters and to escort the passage of cargo to get from.” to start from Odessa » .
The European plan is defined
The proposal to conduct western naval missions to escort grain was also discussed at the extraordinary European Council on Monday and Tuesday. Italy has already confirmed its willingness to participate. “The Italian Navy can make a contribution,” assured Prime Minister Mario Draghi. “We have made our availability available to take part in demining operations,” Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio also reiterated yesterday.
During the Brussels summit, European leaders also examined the possibility of a United Nations resolution to protect the Black Sea naval mission, which must demine the waters of Odessa and then escort merchant ships loaded with Ukrainian wheat on duty to Turkey.
And yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reported that “Putin and Erdogan have agreed that Turkey will help organize demining of Ukrainian ports.” The Kremlin, on the other hand, has so far used wheat as an instrument of blackmail and obligated any cooperation to at least partially lift the sanctions.
Many poor countries towards famine
While the wheat impasse continues, some consequences are already being felt in poorer countries. In Lebanon, which imports 90% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the crisis is already a reality.
In Africa, riots began amid wheat shortages and a 60 percent increase in bread prices. The President of Senegal and the African Union, Macky Sall, spoke candidly in his speech to the EU Council on food security about the “risk of historic famine in Africa, combined with the war in Ukraine and the blocking of grain exports from the Land and strengthened on the continent by the lack of fertilizers ».
It’s an emergency in an emergency: “Two thirds of the malnourished population are already in Africa,” the Senegalese President recalled. All indicators point to a deterioration in the situation.
According to calculations by the African Development Bank, the ongoing war at Europe’s gates is costing the continent around 30 million tons less wheat, soya and corn. Africa and the Middle East are and will be the hardest-hit areas of the world, but more broadly, UN World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley reported that with Ukrainian wheat immobilized in silos, there are “44 million people” in the world who heading for hunger ».