CNN –
Hurricane Lee has re-strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, satellite images and data from a hurricane hunter aircraft showed Sunday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the powerful storm, which has fluctuated in intensity over its time over the open Atlantic, is expected to become a very dangerous Category 4 late Sunday or early Monday morning.
“Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the southeastern east coast (of the United States) and are forecast to worsen over the next few days and spread northward along much of the U.S. east coast,” Das said National Hurricane Center in a report update Sunday.
Lee is forecast to slow significantly as it moves well north of Puerto Rico, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands, but it will have impacts there and on other Caribbean islands. It is too early to determine the long-term trajectory later this week and how significant the impact could be for the northeastern U.S. states, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
By midweek, Lee will turn north and eventually move between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast later this week.
The east coast is preparing for the same big waves and currents as the Caribbean is now.
NOAA
A satellite image provided by NOAA shows Hurricane Lee raging in the Atlantic.
“Waves generated by Lee are impacting parts of the Lesser Antilles,” the National Hurricane Center warned Friday evening. The British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda are also facing waves this weekend that could lead to life-threatening surfing and ripping conditions.
Waves of 6 to 10 feet were forecast for Sunday, according to the National Weather Service office in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Larger waves were expected on east and north facing beaches this week.
“Beach erosion and coastal flooding are possible” The office posted on social media.
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Lee was about 285 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands at 5 p.m. ET Sunday, moving west-northwest at 8 miles per hour.
Lee, which was a Category 1 storm on Thursday, strengthened to Category 5 at exceptional speed as it moved west across the Atlantic, more than doubling its wind speeds to 165 mph in just a day.
Vertical wind shear and an eyewall replacement cycle – a process that occurs in most long-lived major hurricanes – have since led to the storm’s weakening, the hurricane center said.
Computer model trends for Lee have shown that the hurricane is beginning to turn north earlier this week. But exactly when that turning point occurs and how far West Lee will advance by then will play a big role in how close it gets to the United States.
Several control factors at the surface and in the upper atmosphere will determine how close lee comes to the east coast.
Lee’s possible trajectory next week will be determined by several atmospheric factors, including a strong area of high pressure to the east (yellow circle) and the jet stream (silver arrows) to the west.
A high pressure area over the Atlantic, known as Bermuda High, will have a major impact on how fast Lee flips. A strong Bermuda high would keep Lee on his current west-northwest course and slow him down a bit.
As the high pressure eases this week, it will allow Lee to move north. Once that turn northward occurs, the position of the jet stream — strong high-altitude winds that can change the direction of a hurricane’s path — will influence how close Lee is to the U.S.
Tracking Scenario: An area of high pressure (yellow circle) east of leeward and the jet stream (silver arrows) west of leeward may cause the storm to track between the two, away from the U.S. coast.
Lee could quickly turn north earlier this week if high pressure eases significantly.
As the jet stream forms along the east coast, it acts as a barrier preventing Lee from approaching shore. This scenario would keep Lee further from the US coast but could bring the storm closer to Bermuda.
Tracking Scenario: An area of high pressure (yellow circle) east of leeward and the jet stream (silver arrows) west of leeward may cause the storm to track between the two directions closer to the U.S. coast.
Lee could turn north more slowly as high pressure remains robust and the jet stream forms further inland over the eastern US. This scenario would leave parts of the east coast, mainly north of the Carolinas, vulnerable to a much closer approach from Lee.