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The calendar may say November, but the tropical Atlantic is busier than at any point in August. Two hurricanes – Lisa and Martin – have developed, and a third system is organizing, bringing an abrupt surge of activity into a season that would normally be almost over.
Statistically, a November hurricane should form in the Atlantic every two to three years. Having two at the same time is rare. A pair of hurricanes only swept the Atlantic twice simultaneously in November, after Phil Klotzbacha tropical weather researcher at Colorado State University.
As Lisa got closer and closer to Belize on Wednesday morning, a hurricane warning was in place for the entire coast. The National Hurricane Center warned of hurricane force winds and a “life-threatening storm surge” near Lisa’s core, which are expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon through evening.
The southeast coast of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula was also warned of a hurricane from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya. A tropical storm warning covered parts of the north coast of Guatemala and Honduras.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
Another storm, Martin, became the seventh Atlantic hurricane of 2022 on Wednesday morning. It’s located in the North Atlantic Ocean, hundreds of miles northeast of Bermuda, and is expected to move northeast over open waters over the next few days.
According to Ian, Florida’s waterways could remain polluted for months
Roughly midway between Lisa and Martin, there’s potential for the incremental development of a third system near the Bahamas over the next few days.
This flurry of late-season activity in the Atlantic follows a slightly calmer-than-average season, despite devastating storms like Fiona and Ian that wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, Atlantic Canada and southwest Florida. Overall activity at this point is about 25 percent below average.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th. November is typically a slow month, with activity slowing and eventually flattening out. On average, only about 7 percent of a season’s storms occur after Halloween.
As of Wednesday morning, Lisa was about 60 miles east of Roatan, an island in Honduras, and about 100 miles east of Belize City. It grabbed maximum winds of 80 mph while moving west at 15 mph. About 30 miles wide, Lisa’s eyewall, the ring of intense winds surrounding its calm center, was visible on west-swirling radar. It appeared poised to land sometime between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern time.
Winds became increasingly gusty on the coast and were expected to increase significantly around or just after midday. Gusts on the coast near Lisa’s center can approach 70 to 80 miles per hour. Belize City appears to be in the crosshairs of the eyewall’s trajectory.
A dangerous storm surge is likely for areas north of where Lisa’s center comes ashore. In this area, Lisa’s onshore winds will push up to 4 to 7 feet of seawater into the shore. The zone north of Belize City could see the biggest increase, including resort communities on Ambergris Caye.
Areas south of Belize City will see more offshore winds, which should limit the rise.
Heavy rainfall in the range of 4 to 6 inches is expected throughout the direct path of the system, with localized totals of 10 inches possible.
“These rains could result in flash flooding, primarily across Belize to northern Guatemala, the extreme southeastern portion of the Yucatán Peninsula, eastern portion of Mexico’s Chiapas state, and Mexico’s Tabasco state,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
Martin formed quite unexpectedly Tuesday from a mature mid-latitude cyclone. The overarching system was not formed by conventional tropical processes, but flare-ups of showers and thunderstorms occurred near the center of the system. In other words, a compact tropical storm formed at the core of a nontropical system.
It has since intensified into a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour. The storm, about 800 miles northeast of Bermuda, was pushing northeast at a little over 15 miles per hour.
Martin is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 miles per hour by Thursday, but is then expected to quickly transition into a posttropical cyclone and lose its tropical characteristics. It will likely pivot north and remain in southern Greenland until the end of the working week, before abruptly turning east and gradually fading as it approaches Britain.
Weather models are beginning to suggest that a large, broad low-pressure area could develop near or east of the Bahamas in the coming days. The Hurricane Center estimates there is a 20 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm could occur in the next five days.
There’s a chance the system could drift toward Florida or the Gulf of Mexico in a week or so, but how organized and intense it will be is hard to predict this far in advance. If the system deserves a name, it would be called Nicole.