By 2027, the IEA considers it realistic that the share of renewables in Europe’s electricity production will increase to almost 55% – but this is not enough to reach the EU target of 69%. The transport sector could be switched to 16 per cent renewable energy – but according to the REPowerEU programme, the EU would need more than twice that. And also when it comes to heating and cooling, according to the IEA’s forecast, the EU will only achieve much less growth than necessary.
I hope climate targets are met
The war, the consequent rise in prices and the awareness of the impending climate crisis are driving the expansion of renewable energy sources to unprecedented levels, according to the IEA forecast published on Tuesday. The IEA raised its growth forecast in renewables by 30% compared to last year’s report. The IEA writes that significantly accelerated growth in alternative energy sources keeps hope alive that global warming can still be limited to 1.5 degrees.
More than 90% of the global additional electricity demand can be met with renewable sources, mainly wind and photovoltaic. However, this does not mean a decline in the use of fossil fuels, but a stagnation in coal-fired power generation and a slight increase in gas-fired power plants.
2027: More wind energy than hydropower
In the most likely scenario, installed photovoltaic power capacity will triple globally to 2,350 gigawatts (GW) by 2027 and will exceed the capacity of coal-fired power plants. In 2027, for the first time, it is likely that more wind farms will be in operation than hydroelectric. 40% of the world’s electricity will then come from renewable sources. In this period, large photovoltaic systems are the most cost-effective new power plants in most countries.
The global capacity to generate electricity from wind will double in the five years to 2027. However, Europe will lose world market share because growth in China and the US will be significantly higher.