First, the murder of Saleh al AruriLeader of Hamas, killed last Tuesday by an Israeli drone strike in the south of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Then the attack near the grave of Qassem Soleimani To Kermanin Iran, where they continued to die 100 people. Three days before the sinking by the US Navy some rebel boats Houthis (about ten dead) off the coast of Yemen and another three days before the Israeli attack Syria, in which the commander of the Iranian Pasdaran in Syria, Rida al Moussawi, was killed. A long and heavy appetizer, what the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallahhad to digest the last week before organizing his long-awaited speech yesterday, the third since October 7, on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani's death, and certainly one of the longest – almost two hours – that the Lebanese leader has given in the last decade .
At least twenty minutes is dedicated to paying homage to the “martyrs” mentioned above and then does not say much about the nature and dimension of the reaction to it Hezbollah I will want to treat these murders as a single, organic movement of hostility Israel and gods United States (who Nasrallah once again defined as “the real perpetrators of the massacre in Gaza” and then blamed the inaction of the entire international community) to the “Axis of Resistance.” In this context, Nasrallah wanted to emphasize once again not only the horizontality of his leadership – as opposed to the idea that the various factions follow Tehran's orders – but also “Soleimani's greatest achievement”, namely the establishment of an effective internal communication system within the Axis powers, and having contributed to each of these movements – Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Ansarullah in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilization militias in Iraq – being completely “self-sufficient,” independent, and “incapable of taking orders.” superiors, as other movements in the region do with certain regimes”, and driven by their own specific motivations that relate to the internal level (i.e. the Palestinian movements based on what is happening in Palestine, the Lebanese ones on the based on what is happening in Lebanon, etc.) and not on an “international front”.
Nasrallah then listed “seventeen results” that the Axis powers had achieved since then October 7th. The most concrete – or least vague – seem to have hindered the path to normalization in between Israel And Gulf Stateswhich contributed to “ruining Israel’s image before the international community and that of its invincibility” by “preventing what Israel expected of a quick victory and instead limiting itself to the cowardly assassination of the leaders in Beirut.” “in Gaza” and ultimately posed once again a “threat to the very existence of the occupying power.” On this last point, Nasrallah gave some data, such as what he would “approximately” like 300,000 Israelis has been in therapy in recent years due to the effects of “war” and “war in particular” and in his address to his listeners emphasized not only the “internal divisions” within Israelis that would undermine their unity, but also those that Nasrallah sees Inability of many Israeli citizens with dual passports to remain in the country is seen as serious and increasing due to the lack of a solid sense of security, which was blatantly violated on October 7th.
It was to the Lebanese, however, that Nasrallah sent the strongest messages and perhaps even more disturbingThey said they took part in hostilities with Israel in southern Lebanon “to prevent an Israeli surprise attack” and warned them not to rely on the international community for their protection, as it “fails to protect the population of Gaza.” The events of the last month have shown that “only strength, weapons, firmness, courage and will can provide protection”. He then concluded by reaffirming his intention to plan a targeted response to the murder of Al Aruri (as he had already warned last November), which, however, rules out a large-scale war, a viable option (“no limit”) only in case “Israel decides to attack us massively”, essentially a statement further Cautionor maybe from balancing actwhich wants to avoid regional escalation.
On Tuesday evening, after the killing of Saleh al-Arouricontacted the Lebanese government immediately Hezbollah to avoid possible uncontrolled reactions. The interim foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib He then told the BBC that his government was speaking to Hezbollah to “persuade them not to react alone.” “We are in dialogue with them about this,” Bou Habib added, explaining: “In the next few days it will be clear whether Hezbollah will respond or not.” We are very worried, the Lebanese do not want to be drawn into a new war , and Hezbollah doesn't want to be drawn into a regional war either.” Bou Habib summed up the mood in the country quite well, even though his words came before the attack in Iran and obviously before Nasrallah's speech. According to some observers, Al Arouri's assassination will not become one escalation What is more important is that Hezbollah's attacks on Israeli territory are likely to increase in intensity, although if they are particularly damaging (e.g. if they hit large cities), this could prompt Israel to respond more forcefully.
Parsi minced meatan Iranian political scientist of Swedish nationality, sees the instability of the current scenario as the responsibility of the United States who have not only supplied more weapons to Tel Aviv, but have also proven incapable of enforcing a ceasefire in Gaza that would have instead prevented the various aforementioned episodes Lebanon, Syria And Yemen. However, there are other considerations surrounding Al Arouri's murder and the potential consequences it could have on both Hamas's capabilities and the region. Over the years, Israel has killed Hamas leaders several times, starting with the famous one Sheikh Ahmad Yassinby political personalities and military personalities of the brigades Izzedine al Qassam. After each of these killings, Hamas grew rather than weakened, probably because its emergence and existence ultimately depended on the popularity of an ideology that, in turn, depended on the conditions in which Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, live. The same applies to some extent to Hezbollah, where Israel has killed many of its famous soldiers, such as: Imad Mughniyeh And Mustafa Badreddineor even Abbas Al Moussawi, Nasrallah's predecessor.
According to the statement provided to Fatto Daily by a confidential source close to Hezbollah, the assassination of Al Arouri “served Netanyahu to sell his public a form of victory” (given the difficulties of defeating Hamas leaders in Gaza). find) without asking him problem of one possible escalation, perhaps even looking for it, if it is true that the state of war makes a change in the Israeli executive more complicated. Furthermore, it would be a message to the United States, which announced the return of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to port 24 hours before Al Arouri's assassination USS Ford, which had been relocated near the Israeli coast the day after October 7th. A way to urge Biden to rethink in the face of a regional escalation that the Israeli leader increasingly appears to be seeking?