Thomas Flichy de la Neuville, a university professor and author of Ukraine, examines the crisis, told franceinfo on Friday (March 4th) that “if NATO refuses to negotiate with Russia, there will be a de facto division of Ukraine.”
franceinfo: “NATO is not at war”, says its Secretary General: what can make NATO get involved in this conflict?
Thomas Flichy de la Neuville: The Russians won militarily in Ukraine, at least in the part they wanted. They captured southeastern Ukraine and reduced the Ukrainian army to two enclaves, Kramatorsk and Mariupol. Russia’s targets do not go far at the moment because they have deployed 120,000 people and need this army to reduce resistance in this area. If NATO refuses to negotiate with Russia, there will be a de facto division of Ukraine.
Can NATO intervene if another NATO member country is attacked?
Yes, these are the legal reasons. But the real reasons are geoeconomic. The goal of the United States since the 20th century is to prevent the connection between the German plant and Russian hydrocarbon tanks. However, Putin has taken a huge risk with this military operation because it is a perfect opportunity for the United States to sever ties between Germany and Russia. It started industrially and vigorously. If the Russians fought in Ukraine, it was precisely because they were under pressure from NATO. In 15 years, all negotiations have failed. The Russians would be ready to end the war today if we guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and that Crimea and the separatist republics will be recognized, one for its commitment to Russia and the other for their independence.
NATO rejects no-fly zone over Ukraine: why?
NATO is transporting weapons to northwestern Ukraine. Therefore, he intends to act from Ukraine to wage a proxy war, but he will only be able to do so on his own territory, because in fact today we have the division of Ukraine.
Sweden and Finland are now considering joining NATO: what would that change?
This is a victory for the United States, which could not dream of greater NATO enlargement. Now expanding empires are finally falling apart. The main goal for the United States was to be in a dangerous situation, a declining empire with two enemies, China and Russia. And today, they would be able to isolate Russia, which would potentially become a colony of China.