On February 24, 2022, Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, unleashing an invasion on a scale not seen since World War II. After repelling Russian attacks for nearly a year, Ukrainians could use Western arms shipments to go on the offensive in 2023, but they must act quickly, experts say.
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Most analysts didn’t give a damn about Ukraine when the boots of Vladimir Putin’s soldiers could be heard on the streets of Ukraine in late February. In addition, Moscow envisaged a quick victory that would lead to the complete conquest of Ukraine.
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A destroyed Russian tank in Ukraine.
However, tactical mistakes, lack of material, the use of outdated equipment and the lack of motivation of the inexperienced troops in Moscow ensure that David is still competing against Goliath a year later.
The Ukrainian military even launched some of its largest counterattacks in late 2022, some of which hit military infrastructure on Russian territory. Kiev soldiers continue to repel Russian attacks in several locations, particularly in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east of the country. So much so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted in his New Year’s speech that 2023 would be the year of Ukraine’s victory.
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But does Ukraine really have the means to live up to its ambitions?
David Dubé, researcher at the Raoul Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, and Canadian Forces College professor Éric Ouellet, specializing in strategic military leadership and decision-making, help us see things more clearly.
Ukraine is running out of time
While snow and winter cold have significantly slowed the pace of military operations on the ground lately, attacks on both sides should resume in the spring, experts believe.
On the Ukrainian side, the goal is ambitious: to regain all territory lost to the Russians in recent years. A significant development compared to the objectives set at the beginning of 2022, which aimed to counteract and limit the damage, notes David Dubé.
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A Ukrainian tank in Bakhmut.
“Initially there were concerns about whether Ukraine would lose entire regions and whether the government would be replaced by a puppet government. Today we are talking about attacking and even recapturing territories lost since 2014, like Crimea,” he recalls.
For his part, however, Éric Ouellet believes that in order to achieve such a feat, Ukrainian leaders must exploit the current weakness of the Russian armed forces.
“If Ukraine is capable of launching a major offensive quickly enough, the Russian military probably would not have the resources to launch a counterattack. The Russians lost so much high value equipment and troops that their ability to retake lost territory would be limited. I think this is the main map of Ukraine,” he says.
Conversely, he believes that a stalemate in the conflict would be to Russia’s advantage.
“You have to remember that Russia has a long-term strategy in Ukraine. Locally, they could afford to maintain their position in what would be seen as a continuation of what is going wrong for Ukraine. To do this, they could simply deploy troops, send cannon fodder. They don’t care, it’s been part of military strategy for a long time,” he said.
Evidence also suggests that Vladimir Putin is planning to do just that: the maximum age for joining the army has been abolished. Prisoners were also recruited in the country’s prison, and on September 21 the partial mobilization of around 300,000 soldiers was ordered.
The Russian military authorities have also indicated that around 80,000 of these conscripts are already deployed, while the remaining 220,000 have now completed their training. Experts assume that they should be deployed to Ukraine in the spring.
David Dubé also notes that the deadlock in the conflict would benefit Moscow financially. While Ukraine’s economy falters, Russia continues to function “relatively well” despite Western sanctions.
Western aid, the sinews of war
Ammunition, fuel, tanks and artillery: military aid to Ukraine will be crucial for the future, the two specialists emphasize. Because in order to make significant gains, Ukrainians need to carry out frontal attacks by concentrating significant forces in certain strategic places, explains military academy expert Éric Ouellet.
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In Ukrainian tanks in Donetsk region.
“They have to attack the Russian defenses in the south of the country, but the Russians know that, they will be ready. So, to make breakthroughs, a lot of human and material resources of all kinds will be needed, including tanks, artillery equipment and significant reserves of fuel and ammunition, which they currently do not have,” he emphasizes.
On January 23, Canada announced the delivery of four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, adding to the 31 American tanks promised by Washington. A dozen European countries have also pledged to send nearly a hundred tanks. Now it remains to be seen whether westerners can deliver them in a reasonable time.
“If there really is a large arrival of western tanks, a few hundred, then one would think that a Ukrainian offensive is a possibility,” concludes Éric Ouellet.