An Ethiopian woman divides donated wheat into portions
According to experts, African decision-makers must reduce their dependence on individual suppliers.
(Photo: DPA)
Kiel According to model calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the war in Ukraine is threatening food security in Africa. “Russia and Ukraine are among the most important grain exporters in the world,” said Tobias Heidland, research director and member of the Africa research cluster at IfW, on Thursday in Kiel.
Numerous African countries depend on deliveries and cannot compensate for a long-term failure or decline. “This can have dramatic consequences for individual countries, at worst risk severe famine and social unrest.”
Along with other researchers at IfW and the African Development Bank, Heidland simulated the long-term consequences of the Ukraine war for Africa’s grain supply. Wheat and other cereals such as maize, millet, barley and rice were considered. “An important lesson from the crisis is that African policymakers must reduce the entire country’s dependence on individual suppliers, even if it comes at a higher cost,” said Heidland.
The researchers examined several scenarios. In one, they assume that Ukraine will be severely limited in future farming opportunities due to destruction and a war economy, and that productivity will drop by 50%.
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In another scenario, the consequences of a hypothetical ban on grain exports by Russia were calculated, which would add to the reduction of production in Ukraine and the increase in commercial costs. In that case, the consequences for nutrition in Africa would be dramatic, especially with regard to wheat. “So there is a clear mandate for the West to support the hardest-hit countries,” Heidland said.
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