Split
The Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was launched against Kherson at the end of August but has materialized in the Kharkiv region in recent days, has changed the fate of the war started by Russia on February 24. Even the headquarters in Kyiv did not count on the speed with which the Ukrainian military recaptured almost the entire Kharkiv region village by village. And the Russians did not count on this, who on the very day the offensive in the north-east began mobilizing troops south, thinking that the greatest danger for them would come on the Kherson front. Forced into a retreat that Moscow’s military leaders (after a few days of silence) have tried to pass off as strategic, how will the Russians react? Given that the tide of war has really changed, what awaits us in the coming weeks?
The reaction of Russia
Moscow’s heated reaction smells of revenge. On Sunday evening, September 11, it bombed vital infrastructure in several cities in eastern and central Ukraine. In Kharkiv, the Chpp-5 power plant, the city’s most important, burned down completely: the flames were only extinguished on Monday morning. In Poltava, some trolleybuses burned down due to the power outage. In addition to the power outage, water shortages were also reported in various other cities. Trains between Kharkiv and Kyiv were slowed down. Monday morning, more attacks: Kharkiv, where a person died, has no water and no electricity.
But the extent of the defeat provoked internal reactions. The leadership is increasingly criticized on Telegram channels. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadirov (who is said to be very loyal to Putin) said he was ready to go to Moscow to explain to the military leaders how the war is being waged (is it the threat of some kind of painless coup d’etat?). Former MP Boris Nadezhin openly called for peace agreements on the Russia 1 channel. And in Moscow on September 10, during the city’s founding ceremony (for which the historic center was closed to everyone), someone vowed to have seen paramilitary agents moving under direct orders from the President.
Putin Could Be Deposed Soon: The 3 Scenarios
In this context, Putin’s statement assumes a certain probability. In addition to the military defeat, Russia is faced with the economic crisis due to Western sanctions. Hundreds of thousands of jobs went up in smoke. And looking at Moscow everything seems normal, this is just a “showcase”. The reality in Moscow, and especially elsewhere, is that of a country on its knees. The gas price cap would deal the final blow. Putin’s statement is a more credible hypothesis given the prospects Russia faces in the coming months. Isolated from the world (and China will not be able to help it enough), economically and now militarily. But that has to be remembered, even with lost face in front of the international community.
The idea that Putin could simply surrender to keep his seat is implausible. Admission would also mean assuming responsibility (immediate resignation). While the two bogeys dreaded by many seem unlikely. The first would be the nuclear attack (targeted but still nuclear) on Ukraine. NATO has always made it clear that if this were to happen, there would be an automatic and appropriate response. Bringing nuclear war to Europe is simply not permissible for the free world. Russia, exhausted after months of the war it sought and initiated, would not have the strength to endure the obvious reaction to such a gesture. The second bugbear would be the declaration of war on Ukraine (which formally never took place) and the resulting general mobilization. But it would take months. Russia could not think of increasing its human strength without technology and war material. It is already forced to dismantle the old military vehicles in order to obtain spare parts and, albeit with formal refusals, to look for ammunition in North Korea. What guns and bullets would you hand out to hundreds of thousands of listless soldiers?
And finally, there is the question of motivation. Every Ukrainian citizen has always believed in winning. The soldiers are highly motivated: They have to defend their homeland, their people, their cities, their lives. Russian repression has already shown itself in the occupied territories (Melitopol, Kherson, Mariupol): schoolbooks have been replaced by those conveying Russian propaganda to children. This is not acceptable for any Ukrainian. On the contrary, the Russian soldiers have no motivation. They know in their hearts that Ukraine poses no threat to their homes, their people, their lives. Why might they want to sacrifice themselves?
Some commentators are already writing that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will prolong the war. Maybe then we should have hoped for Ukraine’s defeat to end it faster? In reality, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the quickest way to end the war and bring it to a just end, both from a moral point of view and from the point of view of international law. The rate at which Russia has been losing territory it took a long time (and many deaths) to conquer bodes well for those hoping for an early end to the war. Probably without Putin more in power.