“Destructive”. This is how the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the global economic consequences of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.
In addition to the conflict itself, Western sanctions imposed on Russia “will also have a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets, with spillover effects on other countries,” the IMF also warned. Even if the forecasts are still subject to “extreme uncertainty,” “the economic consequences are already very serious,” the institution notes.
A barrel of oil is close to $120
Soaring prices for energy and raw materials in general, with a barrel of oil now close to $120 and a megawatt-hour (MWh) of gas that has topped €200 in Europe, are exacerbating inflationary pressures that already knew the world before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the global logistics crisis.
“The price surge will affect the whole world, in particular low-income households, for whom spending on food and energy makes up a larger share” of their budget than the average, the IMF predicts.
The bill will not be “painless” for the French, Ecological Transition Minister Barbara Pompili warned on France Info on Friday. For example, in France, according to the estimate of the credit insurance company Euler Hermes, French households’ energy costs could increase by 400 euros this year and reach 2,800 euros.
“If they want to limit the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on their economic growth, the States will have no choice but to apply government support measures for households,” said Ana Boata, director of economic research at Euler Hermes, which is valued at 17 billion euros necessary envelope for France.
State aid
The government is once again forced to take out the checkbook to support businesses and households. On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron asked the prime minister to draw up an “economic and social resilience plan” to respond to the difficulties arising from the conflict, in particular rising energy and raw material prices, which will have “impacts on our purchasing power.” tomorrow”.
Already the “tariff shield” on gas prices is being extended until the end of 2022, Barbara Pompili told France Info on Friday. In October, it ruled that the natural gas price lockout for individuals was to end in principle in June 2022. At what price ? So far, €1.2 billion has been mobilized in the 2020 budget to compensate for this freeze on gas suppliers. An envelope, which is therefore bound to become heavier.
At the moment, prices on the pump are rising. And this is just the beginning. On RMC on Thursday, System U president Dominic Schelcher said he expects “a sudden increase in fuel supplies in the coming days” in France. On the eve of the French Union of the Petroleum Industry (Ufip). warned of the likely risk of price hikes at gas stations “by a few cents a litre” when “we were already at historic highs”.
Wheat and corn prices skyrocketed
In addition to the price of energy, the prices of wheat and corn are skyrocketing. On Friday, the first rose in price by 7.92% to 412 euros per ton, the second by 6.33% to 403 euros per ton, also breaking European market records. Ukraine is the central country for the supply of agricultural raw materials. In metals, nickel topped $30,000 a tonne for the first time since 2008.
On the ground, the fighting continues. On Saturday, the Russian army again attacked the strategic port of Mariupol and continued its offensive in other parts of Ukraine, continuing heavy fighting around its capital, Kyiv.
“Due to the unwillingness of the Ukrainian side to influence the nationalists or extend the “ceasefire,” offensive operations resumed from 18:00 Moscow time,” the Russian Security Ministry said.
Monday talks between Russians and Ukrainians
The Ukrainians delayed the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol on the Black Sea and another besieged city hours earlier, citing violations of the ceasefire by Russian forces. As a result of the ongoing fighting in Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis has further worsened, with 1.37 million people already taking refuge abroad since the invasion began on February 24, according to the latest UN count.
The siege of Mariupol comes at a time when Russian forces are closing in on Kiev, meeting stiff resistance, and occasionally bombing residential buildings, including in Chernihiv, 150 kilometers north of the capital, where dozens of civilians have died in recent days. An AFP team that arrived there on Saturday saw scenes of destruction in residential areas – though Moscow claims it did not target them – in the city of 300,000 that was abandoning its residents, raising fears that a similar fate Kyiv once had. Russian missile batteries and artillery stands at the gates of the capital.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov acknowledged on Saturday morning that the Russians had advanced in several directions. He accused Moscow of changing tactics and harassing civilians after he faced strong Ukrainian resistance, which he said undermined Russia’s plans to seize major cities and quickly overthrow the government. In ten days of fighting, the Russians have made great progress on Ukrainian territory, but so far they have taken only two key cities – Berdyansk and Kherson on the Black Sea.
According to the Ukrainian authorities, the third round of negotiations with the Russians will take place on Monday. But the chances of progress seem slim as Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that dialogue with Kiev will only be possible if “all Russian demands” are accepted, in particular Ukraine’s “neutral and non-nuclear” status and its “mandatory demilitarization.” .
He also stressed on Saturday that Russia would consider an ally any country attempting to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, as claimed by the Ukrainian government.
Ukraine asks Westerners for fighter jets
The Ukrainian foreign minister told his American counterpart in a one-on-one meeting on Saturday that his country needed fighter jets and air defense systems, calling the Ukrainian government’s refusal “a sign of weakness.” zone over Ukraine.
“It’s no secret that we have the highest demand for fighters, attack aircraft and air defense systems,” Dmitry Kuleba told US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during a briefing on border talks between Ukraine and Poland.
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Russia may derail the Vienna nuclear deal with Iran
While the agreement with Iran on the nuclear program gave hope for the possibility of relying on Iranian oil, Moscow intervened. On Saturday, Russia demanded a guarantee from Washington that sanctions against it over Ukraine would not affect its cooperation with Tehran before restarting the Iranian nuclear deal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that the sanctions imposed on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine created a “problem” from Moscow’s perspective regarding Iran’s nuclear power. The Russian request came as indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States on a 2015 safeguards agreement governing Tehran’s nuclear activities appeared to be on the verge of success. The request is “not constructive” for talks between Tehran and world powers aimed at resurrecting the 2015 nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. A Russian statement that could derail months of intense proxy talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna. came shortly after Tehran said it had agreed a roadmap with the UN nuclear watchdog to address outstanding issues that could help reactivate the nuclear pact.
latribune.fr
March 05, 2022, 19:19