Will Donald Trump destroy the race for the Republican nomination for the US presidential election from the start? Or will his rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis pull off an upset? Answer in ten days in Iowa, the state that has hosted the big primary since 1972.
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The four-time criminally indicted former president faces the verdict of voters for the first time since leaving the White House in unimaginable chaos in 2021.
The billionaire and his rivals are vying to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.
“As long as he is in the White House, the American dream will be dead,” says Donald Trump at his meetings and promises, as he did in 2016, to “give the country back its greatness.”
Army of volunteers
His opponents may be alarmed at the threat the former president poses to democracy — they particularly condemn his comments about migrants “poisoning the blood of the United States” — but nothing is working.
Despite his charges, some of which earned him prison sentences, the ex-businessman is credited with 60% of the vote against his Republican opponents in the polls and enjoys one of the largest margins of all time.
Because in Iowa, as across the country, the Tribune, endowed with undeniable political flair, still has a very loyal base that brushes aside his antics and legal troubles.
Donald Trump also relies on an army of volunteers who have been combing every corner of this Midwestern agricultural state for months, handing out leaflets, signs and his famous red hats.
Will that be enough to win on January 15th?
The verdict will come at 7 p.m. local time, when voters gather in Iowa's schools, libraries and fire stations to nominate their candidate in a secret ballot.
Haley and DeSantis on his trail
This evening, six more Republicans will be in the race to block Donald Trump's path. Only two seem to still have a chance.
On the one hand, the former UN ambassador under the Trump administration, Nikki Haley, the new darling of the American right.
The 50-year-old, former governor of South Carolina, is the only woman in the race. She is also one of the few candidates who want to continue supporting Ukraine financially and militarily.
On the other side is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration and abortion.
The 40-year-old former naval officer bet everything on Iowa and visited each of its 99 counties. He can also count on the valuable support of Kim Reynolds, the governor of this state.
Among other things, he is suspected of lacking charisma, but his rating has largely collapsed in recent months.
These two candidates are each polling at peaks of around 11 or 12%.
But observers do not rule out the possibility that one or the other will spring a surprise and eat up part of the stormy billionaire's dizzying lead.
However, if Donald Trump does not win the landslide victory in Iowa that he was predicted to achieve, there is a risk that he will appear significantly more vulnerable for the rest of the race.
The following week, the highly orchestrated ballet of the primaries takes the candidates to New Hampshire before heading to Nevada and South Carolina in February.
In return, the 50 states of the Union will vote by June to allocate their quota of delegates to the candidates for the national convention in July, where the Republican presidential candidate will be officially nominated.
For 77-year-old Donald Trump, the priority is to secure his victory before his trials begin, some of which are scheduled to begin in March.
What about the Democrats?
Outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, already enjoys his party's official support and, barring any major surprises, should be named its nominee in August. And this despite repeated criticism of his age.
Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and best-selling author Marianne Williamson are vying to unseat him, although their chances don't seem realistic.