The year 2022 brought forth a new world, a land of uncertainty. 2023 begins in a strategic landscape disrupted by war and a difficult economic horizon – inflation, expensive energy, sluggish growth. Against the background of the fight against global warming, these shocks feed off each other and create a chaotic web.
By attacking Ukraine, Vladimir Putin brought war back to Europe. He takes full responsibility. This conflict is a “choice conflict,” a deliberate aggression, not a “necessity conflict.” The Russian President does not support Ukraine being fully independent or being more seduced by the western world than by Putin’s elegant political and economic model…
The front is briefly stabilized. Defeated in his offensive on Kyiv, Putin seized part of eastern Ukraine, which he annexed to the Russian Federation. He never made his war aims clear and, as his relatives remember, he never renounced Kyiv or Odessa, the large Ukrainian port city on the Black Sea. It brings massive reinforcements to occupied Ukraine and works every day to destroy the country’s civilian infrastructure with volleys of rockets. Moscow expects the winter to wear down Ukrainians and the weary Americans and Europeans who support Kyiv militarily and economically. Answer by spring?
Also read the forum: Article reserved for our subscribers “Putin’s war against Ukraine has entered a new, even more dangerous phase”
Russia, protected by its nuclear arsenal, has launched a conventional war. It uses nuclear weapons both as a threat against Ukraine and to limit Western support for Kyiv. Nuclear instead of conventional? Do nuclear weapons empower and not deter conventional warfare? Many Central Powers are watching this very closely. Putin’s war could accelerate nuclear proliferation.
Autocratic Model
The war has strengthened transatlantic relations, revived and expanded NATO. It demonstrated the effectiveness, if not the superiority, of western weaponry. The West’s arbitrarily debated military “decline” is by no means obvious. The twenty-seven members of the European Union have remained united in their support for Kyiv and in their sanctions policy against Moscow. The United States, the main supplier of military aid to Ukraine, is measuring its support: no arms shipments, which are likely to penetrate deep into Russian territory. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which will take office in January, will not change its support for Ukraine — largely bipartisan for now.
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