The calendar says 2024 Every day is war red, because no one is now in a position to set the dates for peace in the Middle East and Ukraine, and no one knows whether it will occur: hope is fruitless if there are no positive measures triggering ceasefires and negotiations; and none of them are visible at the moment.
The impotence – or factionalism – of the key bodies of world government will be confirmed in 2023 difficult to overcome in 2024: UN reform is not conceivable in the short term; G7 and G20 have original representation and efficiency deficiencies that cannot be remedied; and the barely mentioned sketches of a new alternative international order are missing – yet? – of homogeneity and functionality. However, Italy, as the rotating presidency of the G7, will have a special situation Responsibility.
However, the dates of the most important elections have already been set: March 17, presidential elections in Russia, without pathos because he will win Vladimir Putin; between April and May politics in India, the world's largest democracy; from June 5th to 9th, Choose Europeans for the renewal of the European Parliament, which will serve as a prelude to the renewal of the heads of the European institutions in the autumn; Presidential and political elections will take place in the United States on November 5th.
Also read Politics | From FQ.
Cacciari: “European elections? The right will win, but there will be no riot. The EU counts for nothing, the West is only American”
But the list of voices is much longer: to name just a few, the Great Britain, although the vote could be postponed until January 2025 at the government's discretion; in the EU, Portugal, Belgium and in the fall Austria; Mexico, where two women will compete for the successor on June 2nd Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; and then again Taiwan on January 13th, Iran in March, Belarus.
Overall approximately three billion by people in almost 50 countries. In Italy, in addition to the European elections, we will also take part in regional and administrative elections – around 3,700 municipalities will be affected.
Russia Elections are one formality: The re-election of Putin, candidate for a fifth term – and it may not be his last: he is 71 years old and there are no constitutional limits to his power – seems a given. The Russian leader, who seemed to have been reduced to the status of a pariah after the invasion of Ukraine, has gradually found room for maneuver Chinawith me Brics whose expansion must be confirmed and specified in 2024, most recently with the missions on the Arabian Peninsula.
The outbreak of a conflict between Israel And Hamas It then relegated Ukraine in the attention of the media and public opinion to the role of “another war” and highlighted a certain weariness of Western aid in Kiev, where the presidential elections were to take place in March in parallel with the Russian, have been moved on a date to be determined. In 2024, the goal of retaking the occupied territories could be abandoned: the alternative is to try to improve positions with a view to negotiations, essentially in a context of conflicts of attrition static.
India Voting in India is a test case for this Narendra waysone of the most active leaders in the search for a new world order, in an otherwise spontaneous and contrasting enterprise – with him are Putin and the Chinese president Xi Jinpingthe Brazilian presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the South African Cyril Ramaphosa, but also more ambiguous figures such as the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi – who himself just underwent a not very significant electoral audit.
The second mandate given by the Indian people to the Prime Minister and his BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) expires in the new year. It's about deciding whether Modi, who has been in office since 2014, will lead the now changed country the most populous in the worldfor the next five years, until 2029.
Also read World | From FQ.
Elections in India: Victory of outgoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His party alone won the majority of seats
EU The European elections in their tenth edition will show whether the integration project still arouses the interest of the citizens of the 27 Union citizens – the benchmark will be voter turnout – and, above all, whether the will to move forward together is present prevails about the temptation to return to national egoism.
The crises of the ninth European legislative period, the pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas have shown that the EU it is effective when it combines forces to reactas she did with the launch of the Next Generation Eu program to get the economy back on track post-Covid, and she is subordinate and gregarious when she does not have the cohesion or strength to be heard.
On the Ukrainian front there is essentially agreement, but there is a tendency towards the Atlantic, ie American, positions: it has no autonomy, also because it does not have sufficient military strength. In the Middle East it is fragmented; and Israel only recognizes the role of paying for it reconstruction of infrastructures whose destruction it takes responsibility for.
USA The election campaign for USA 2024 will shape the entire year and influence international diplomatic activities – and could even paralyze: Who should actually focus on a change of tenants in the White House, such as Russia or Israel, for different reasons, it will tend to become Melinaat least until the vote.
At the moment everything indicates that the two will be candidates of the major parties Joe Bidendemocratic and Donald Trump card, Republican. But the political and legal uncertainties weighing on the election campaign are enormous: Biden has very low approval ratings and the handicap of age – he will soon be 82 on election day; Trump, who is not much younger – he will be 78.5 years old – must face up Federal trialsstate and local levels (a first ruling is expected on January 11) and its controversial eligibility must be reviewed by the United States Supreme Court.
Also read World | From FQ.
Maine also excludes Trump from the Republican primary race due to the Capitol insurrection
However, the Democrats do not have a ready-made reserve map. However, Republicans could make gains during the primaries. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, former US representative to the United Nations, moderate and prepared: Her election in November would confirm the rule that women come to power in the West, especially if they are right-wing. But we're not at that point yet.
These are the dates in 2024 to remember:
January 1st – EU, start of the rotating Belgian presidency of the Council of Ministers.
15. January – The US primary season begins (until June) with Republican caucuses in Iowa.
February 1st – EU, Extraordinary European Council on the multiannual budget.
March 10th – Portugal, political elections.
17. March – Russia, presidential elections.
21st/22nd March – EU, European Council.
April and May – India, general elections.
2th of June – Mexico, presidential elections.
6th-9th June – EU, European elections.
June 9th – Belgium, political elections.
13th-15th June – G7 summit under alternating Italian presidency in Apulia, in the Itria Valley, in Fasano, near Borgo Egnazia.
17th/18th June – EU, informal European Council after the European elections.
27th/28th June – EU, European Council appoints the President of the European Commission.
July 1 – EU, beginning of the rotating Hungarian presidency of the Council of Ministers.
15th-18th July – EU, first plenary session of the newly elected European Parliament and official vote for the President of the European Commission; USA, Republican Party National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
19th-22nd August – USA, Democratic Party National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
24th/25th October – EU, European Council on the election of the President of the European Council, which will come into force on December 1st.
November 5th – USA, presidential elections and for the renewal of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate.
18/19 November – G20 summit chaired by Brazil.
November – Apec, summit under the rotating Peruvian presidency.