Questions about Wagner’s future have arisen following the death of their leader Evguéni Prigojine, but experts say Russia has a keen interest in continuing the group’s diverse activities in Africa, one of its main areas of operations.
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Russia has outsourced some of its operations in Africa to Wagner since 2014: security, with the deployment of fighters alongside national armies in Libya, then the Central African Republic and Mali; politics with disinformation and destabilization campaigns; Trade in the exploitation of mineral resources.
The Kremlin has no interest in stopping this, analysts say.
With or without Wagner: “Russia wants to maintain its economic and security interests in Africa, that’s a priority,” said Rama Yade, Africa director of the American think tank Atlantic Council.
The latest pictures of Yevgeny Prigozhin alive include images broadcast Monday, in which he, in camouflage uniform and carrying an assault rifle, said he was in Africa working for the greatness of Russia. It was his first appearance on camera since his short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin in June.
Before Yevgeny Prigozhin, his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, and other Wagner officials disappeared in the mysterious crash of their plane on Wednesday, New York’s Soufan Center think tank was already investigating the aftermath of the mutiny: “It’s almost certain that Wagner or some similar venture.” under a new name will continue to implement the same strategy: identifying fragile states to provide security support in the broadest sense in exchange for access to mineral resources.”
Wagner was financially supported by the Russian state, but in return it was “a lucrative business for Moscow, too,” he said.
Africa is the scene of a bitter strategic struggle between the powers and the Kremlin has other influences there than Wagner: embassies, economic actors, television stations, Orthodox churches…
“Wagner’s successes in Africa are also getting relative support from other Russian networks,” recalls Lou Osborn, a member of the NGO All Eyes On Wagner and co-author of a book on the subject, due out in September.
“Wagner is the vehicle of Russian neocolonialism and there is no reason to stop it,” said Central African opponent Joseph Bendounga.
“Only Option”
It will be difficult to take control of such a complex organization that has created so many networks.
“The Kremlin has no intention of abandoning the activities in Africa initiated by Prigojine, but devolving those operations to a successor will be a delicate matter,” said Peter Rough, an analyst at the Hudson Institute.
“President Vladimir Putin himself recently admitted that the Kremlin does not fully understand the complex system put in place by Yevgeny Prigoyine,” the Soufan Center noted.
“To replace Wagner staff in Africa, new candidates with sufficient networks and experience must be found,” agrees John Lechner, independent researcher and author of a forthcoming book on Wagner.
In a country like the Central African Republic, where the group has steadily grown in influence since arriving in 2017 until supporting the organization of a constitutional referendum in July, “it is very likely that certain key figures in the organization will retain their positions,” he said he forecast.
The character of Evguéni Prigojine alone leaves a gap.
“There will certainly be many personalities who will express their willingness to take on these difficult tasks, provided they have the appropriate funding, but they will certainly be inferior to Prigojine in scope and importance,” he said Denis Korotkov, Russian investigative journalist.
For certain of Wagner’s African partners, it can be significant. Critics of its presence in Africa, such as France and the United States, accuse it of serving as life insurance for regimes like the junta ruling Mali.
For African governments that need an alternative to Western partners, “Wagner remains the only option available,” says John Lechner.
The Malian junta has never admitted using Wagner’s services. She did not react to the death of her leader.
Fidèle Gouandjika, on the other hand, doesn’t say he’s worried about the future. This special adviser to Central African President Faustin Archange Touadéra’s minister, who wore the group’s insignia on his t-shirt, assured AFP that the disappearance of Evguéni Prigojine “will not change anything here on the ground”.
“We have a defense agreement with the Russian Federation and under this agreement the Russian Federation has subcontracted the Wagner paramilitaries,” he said.