Special correspondent in Tel Aviv – As the war against Hamas continues in Gaza, the Israeli army announced in early January that it would move into the third phase of its operation with more targeted actions to reduce the intensity of fighting in the Palestinian enclave. Yohanan Tzoreff, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, provides his analysis of these first three months of the conflict.
Published on: 09/01/2024 – 11:51
7 mins
The war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is entering its fourth month. Israel announced at the beginning of January that it had now moved to the “third phase”, i.e. more targeted operations. The army claimed to have completed the military defeat of Hamas in the north of the Palestinian enclave and carried out raids, particularly in tunnels. A phase that, according to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, must lead to the “destruction of Hamas, the release of hostages and the securing of the Gaza Strip.” Yohanan Tzoreff, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, takes stock of these three months of war for France 24.
Yohanan Tzoreff, researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, January 8, 2024 in Tel Aviv. © Assiya Hamza, France 24
France 24: Can Israel “destroy” Hamas as it promises?
Yohanan Tzoreff: I think it's very difficult. When it comes to dismantling the Hamas army, it is possible, but it will take a long time. The army destroyed much of the structure of Hamas units. They now fight as individuals and no longer as units. Today Israel controls the entire northern Gaza Strip, Gaza City, Jabaliya and all other parts of the city. This means that there is no one left in this area. They went south, but that's not the end. Hamas poses a threat to daily life in Israel, so we have no choice. When we left Gaza in 2005, we thought we would not return. Our Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has understood that there is no way to overcome the problems in the Gaza Strip. Hamas forced Israel to enter the country and many actors in the Middle East to take part in this war. I'm not just talking about Hezbollah and Iran, but also Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
What do we know about the Hamas tunnels, where most of the fighting with the Israeli army takes place today? ?
Gaza tunnels fuel competition between Hamas and Fatah. I believe that they existed before the Oslo Accords [de 1993, entraînant une reconnaissance mutuelle d’Israël et de l’OLP de Yasser Arafat, NDLR] but only on the border between Israel and Egypt. Many things were smuggled with them. At that time, Hamas was under pressure from the Palestinian Authority and Israel, but also from Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood's main rival. Hamas' charter states that Fatah or the PLO failed to fight Israel because they did not adopt the ideas of Islam. As Islamists, they said they combine national values with religion and are stronger than others. So they started thinking about how they could fight and destroy the Oslo Accords. With the tunnels they controlled the entire Gaza Strip. When they took control in 2007, they were free to do whatever they wanted.
What was Hamas' goal when it started this war? ? A return of international attention to the Palestinian issue ?
Hamas was founded over 30 years ago and has never achieved anything. He fought four wars against Israel, each of which resulted in the destruction of Gaza. What did they do for the liberation of Palestine? They say they showed the world that no one could violate their rights. With this barbaric terrorist attack on October 7, Hamas achieved two things: that negotiations between the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel ceased and that the Palestinian issue was once again on the table. There have been no peace talks in the region since 2009.
What future does the Gaza Strip have after the war?
There is consensus in Israel that Gaza must become a zone without Hamas as a military organization. On the other hand, there are likely to be a large number of Islamic political movements. They must be prepared to accept all of the PLO's commitments: the Oslo Accords, all international resolutions, a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. And no more war. They do not have to recognize Israel, but they must commit to respecting the decisions the PLO has already made. But I think it would be better for Israel if a coalition consisting of some European states, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, together with the Palestinian Authority, could control the area.
What future do the occupied territories have? Is a fratricidal struggle between Fatah and Hamas like in Gaza in 2007 likely? ?
Even if it is true that Israel does not know it, Mahmoud Abbas made many mistakes. Today, Fatah consists of more than three groups, not all of which accept its leadership. Some people think he should go. If you want to be the sole representative of the Palestinians, you must unite your own movement. The problem is that Israel doesn't pay attention to this. Since 2009, the Israeli government has viewed the Palestinians as the same and has not cooperated with Mahmoud Abbas. However, Israel is the main player in the Palestinian arena. In his competition with Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas cannot count on Israel. That's why he focuses on survival, which means corruption because you have to pay people who are loyal to you. Corruption means losing people's support and legitimacy. The government works, but only partially. Security coordination with Israel still works because they understand they need it.
Is peace between Israelis and Palestinians still possible?
The greatest prime minister in Israel's history, Ben-Gurion, said that our national security must be based on trying to achieve peace. After 1973, Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat called for peace after years of ignoring Israel. He changed the situation in the Middle East. We have lived in peace with Egypt for over 50 years. The Palestinian Authority accepts the idea of a two-state solution. And I think Hamas wants to be a part of it now. The party accepts the idea of two states within the 1967 borders, but without recognizing Israel. They believe Hamas cannot accept the sovereignty of a non-Muslim group. That’s why they want to make a “hudna”. This is the concept of a ceasefire for 100 years without recognizing Israel. The latter rejects this idea because it means that the war could start again at any time. But there are also religious people on the Israeli right who think the same as religious Palestinians. They want to keep what they consider the Holy Land.