In theory, very little should have changed in the “this is where and why I think player X will go to team Y” game during the lockout, but with so much time passed, I understand why the pundits want to make new predictions for free. . agency flurry.
ESPN’s David Schonfield this morning lists the ten remaining free agents, with Carlos Correa topping the list. And where does Correa land? With the Chicago Cubs, of course:
So maybe that leaves the Blue Jays and Cubs. Prior to the lockout, the Blue Jays pursued Seeger and tried to re-sign Marcus Semien before the Rangers added both players. Correa would be a massive defensive upgrade over Beau Bichette, who could drop to second to form a dynamic duo in the middle of the infield. As for the Cubs, remember that they signed Marcus Stroman and acquired Wade Miley, which is a sign that they are ready to go through the 2021 retool season. If so, they still need a cornerstone offense and Correa is a perfect fit – Nico Horner and Nick Madrigal hit five home runs in 638 career bats together, so those are two powerless middle infielders….
Forecast: Cubs. The Cubs are a big-market team that best fits the need for payroll flexibility to hit Correa with a big offer. The current payroll is $128 million, well below $165 million in 2021, not to mention $237 million in 2019.
Part of Shenfield’s rationale is that the other options don’t look right for Correa (and his contract) at the moment, and he’s not wrong about that. We know the Cubs are interested, but we also know that no one believes they are interested at the 10+ year, $300+ million level. And on the one hand, it will almost certainly put them out of a real run when you start sorting through other possible contenders for such a big contract, they all have problems too.
You can read Shenfield’s article for a full introduction to teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Dodgers. While I still think Correa is in a 10+ year deal (with the option to opt out) and on the monstrous AAV, I also think it’s worth at least waiting for his rumor mill until he actually signs. You never know those questions about his back injury, you never know if he’ll want a short-term, even higher AAV deal, and you never know, maybe the Cubs have been mean all along.