Published on: 23.10.2022 – 12:56
The election campaign for the Midterms 2022 is characterized by an unusual presence of the ex-president. So much so that this vote, historically sanctioning the head of state, looks like a dual Biden-Trump referendum this time. And the Democrats hope to benefit from it. Analyze.
A little bit of 2020 is in 2022. On November 8th, the United States will hold its midterm elections: general and local elections, which usually provide a tally of the first half of the current president’s term. However, the front pages of the American press are as much, if not more, about Donald Trump than about Joe Biden.
Tradition dictates that former heads of state remain relatively silent outside the Oval Office, preferring the tumult to Washington vacations in the sun, high-paying conferences, or building a presidential library. Not so for Donald Trump.
Since his defeat in 2020 – which he never admitted – the billionaire, who has been silenced on Twitter and Facebook, has continued to mobilize his supporters via press releases and on his own network, Truth Social. Donald Trump leaves the door wide open for a run for the White House in 2024. He attends meetings and often steals the show from the congressional candidates he is said to have come to support. For these midterms, he dubbed relatively successful candidates, such as best-selling author JD Vance in Ohio, who supported his stolen election conspiracy theory. Conversely, some of those who refused to play in his game, like Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney, lost their primary.
Pans
And even if he chooses not to talk about him, it’s missed. Business has been picking up since this summer. The FBI’s spectacular search of his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida resulted in the seizure of boxes containing classified White House archives. Since then, the legal battle between Donald Trump and the Justice Department has raged.
His legal troubles don’t end there. New York State Attorney General Letitia James on Sept. 21 announced civil charges against Donald Trump and some of his children as part of the investigation into the Trump Organization’s tax practices.
Finally, the Congressional Commission of Inquiry into the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol Attack, whose last hearing was live on Oct. 13, continues to remind Americans of their former president’s coupist intentions. But the latter persists and signs. Called by the Commission for a final showdown, Donald Trump responded the next day with a scathing statement. “With the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been spent on what many consider farce and witch hunts… you have not even spent a moment investigating the massive voter fraud that took place during the 2020 presidential election (…).”
The Democrats rub hands. While the spotlight is on Donald Trump, his pans, and his unsupported allegations, the critique of Joe Biden’s record takes a back seat. “Midterms are often referred to as a referendum on the incumbent president, which logically should hurt Democrats since Joe Biden is not a popular president,” comments J. Miles Coleman, political mapmaker and co-editor of Sabato’s newsletter Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia’s election prediction tool. The popularity rating of the head of state is only around 42.5% after falling to 37% this summer. But according to J. Miles Coleman, Donald Trump’s extreme visibility could “save” Democrats: “The more he fits into this election, the more he reminds undecided voters why they voted for Biden.”
A not so big Republican wave?
These midterms promise to become a double Biden-Trump referendum. Doug Schwartz, director of Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute, confirms that this is quite unusual for midterm elections. “Traditionally, the result would look like a verdict on the performance of Joe Biden and his party. But it’s becoming an election because many voters also have Donald Trump on their minds.” And to add: “Six months ago, most political observers were expecting a major Republican wave of the same kind that we saw two years after Donald took power Trump or Barack Obama have experienced. Today, they estimate the wave may not be that big, if there is one.” Lately, analysts believe Democrats stand a chance of retaining their Senate majority.
The “Trump” effect on these midterms could also have implications for the 2024 Republican primary, according to J. Miles Coleman: “Looking at the January 6 hearings, Republicans are tempted to think, ‘We could nominate someone who looks like Trump , but does not drag his pans.”
democracy on the ballot
Joe Biden and his teams made good use of this opportunity. As Republicans try to blame him for the spectacular inflation — dubbed “bidenflation” — hitting the country and the rest of the world, he’s responding with a “save democracy” campaign. “There is no place for political violence,” he said Sept. 1 during a fanfare speech in Philadelphia, where the Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution were passed.
Nevertheless, the issue of democracy is a double-edged sword. Firstly, because to this day it is not the priority of voters. “Inflation and abortion are certainly more important issues,” asserts J. Miles Coleman. But also because everyone sees a bit of what they want in the expression “Save democracy”: “A polling institute asked voters whether threats against democracy were an important issue. Two-thirds said yes, cross-party. But in fact. ” The wording was pretty broad. If you’re a Democrat, think of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol or Trump and his authoritarian tendencies. If you’re a Republican, think voter fraud.”
The Democrats already know that they cannot convince Donald Trump’s die-hard supporters. But in order to stand a chance in the Senate, they tend to target independent voters, moderates who move from one party to another depending on the election and who get pimples at the invocation of the figure of Donald Trump. If the latter are very unhappy with Joe Biden’s policies and runaway inflation, perhaps a reminder of the Jan. 6 attack could save them from throwing a Republican ballot in the ballot box. Democrats will have their answer on November 8th.