via Associated PressAerial view of devastated eastern Mariupol, April 9, 2022.
UKRAINE – Smashed, surrounded, in ruins… Mariupol, a martyr city, symbol of the war in Ukraine, is on the brink of collapse. On Monday, the Ukrainian army said it was preparing for “one last battle”. Two days later, on Wednesday April 13, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that a thousand soldiers had surrendered their weapons; a point disputed by several Ukrainian authorities. In any case, the fall of this city could mark a turning point in the conflict.
The capture of Mariupol would give Russian forces a significant advantage due to the city’s strategic location. It lies south of the Donbass, a region claimed by Moscow and partially controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Should the city fall, Vladimir Putin’s army would deprive the rest of Ukraine of access to the port and the Sea of Azov, important to Ukraine’s international trade.
AFP mapMap of Ukraine from April 12. Mariupol in the southeast is a strategic city for the Russians, who would have easy access to Crimea and Kherson.
More broadly, by taking control of Mariupol, the Russians would have access to the strip of land that stretches as far as Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, even as far as Kherson, one of the first cities given to it after the war began Lap fell Invasion on February 24 The connection of the eastern and southern fronts would mean a victory for Moscow after an initial phase of stagnation.
Then there are the military consequences. According to the BBC, many troops could be transferred from Mariupol to Donbass, Moscow’s priority target since late March. In fact, Russia has announced its withdrawal from the Kyiv region and its intention to focus on the liberation of that region, which is home to the two Moscow-recognized separatist republics, Lugansk and Donetsk. A battle that Moscow dreams of winning until May 9, the national holiday.
The Battle of Donbass
Western experts believe in the Guardian that after the withdrawal of troops from the capital and the possible victory at Mariupol, the Russians could “double or even triple” their armed forces in the region. Jack Detsch, a security journalist, says the troops could take Donbass through Izium, Lugansk, Donestk and Mariupol. His information comes from British intelligence.
NEW: Russia likely to advance on the Donbass through the embattled city of Izyum to the north and past Luhansk, Donetsk and besieged Mariupol: UK Defense Intel Assessment
🇺🇦 launches counter-attacks from Mykolayiv, which failed to control 🇷🇺 and engages near Izyum. pic.twitter.com/vWaO9M7852
—Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 13, 2022
The Ukrainian army is also increasing its presence in the east in preparation for the offensive. At a meeting with NATO, Ukraine’s defense minister warned: “The battle for Donbass will remind you of World War II, with its large-scale operations, maneuvers, the thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, the aircraft and the artillery,” reports Foreign Politik.
In addition to Donbass, other troops could arrive from Mariupol to reinforce troops stationed further west in Kherson, where the Ukrainian army is still struggling to regain control of this city, which dates from the first days of the war, according to Guardian experts.
In a message published on the Presidency’s website on Sunday, April 10, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was clear: Mariupol is the heart of this war. She fights, we fight, we are strong. If she stops fighting, we will have weaker positions. A hard blow for the Ukrainians, who would lose influence in the East, but also in negotiations with Russia.
See also on the Huffpost: These aerial photos of Mariupol are chilling