Things are not going well for President Volodymyr Zelensky and his chances of pushing invading Russian forces beyond Ukraine's borders.
• Also read: A large-scale Russian attack on Kiev leaves 53 people injured and Ukraine asks for help
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The war in Ukraine is a confrontation between democracy and autocracy, and today the autocracy seems to be in charge.
War weariness is clearly evident in both Ukraine and its Western allies and the coming months do not bode well. For Vladimir Putin and the autocrats he mobilizes to his cause, the opposite is the case.
Winter will be long in Kiev
There has been no progress for Ukrainian troops on the ground since last summer. The Russian occupying forces are prolonging the conflict and time is working to their advantage.
Firstly, their defensive position is more favorable than that of the attackers. Then the Ukrainians do not have sufficient air power and the uncertainty about the future of arms deliveries forces them to conserve what they have. In addition, the Ukrainian economy is in shambles, while Russia has been able to avoid international sanctions with the help of its autocratic allies.
After all, the Putin regime does not care about the human losses among the conscripts it sends to the front, while Zelensky must contend with the constraints imposed by his democratic legitimacy. In fact, Zelensky's political authority is beginning to show certain flaws, which the Russians are trying to exploit by secretly stoking certain internal tensions.
Vladimir Putin AFP
Disagreements in Brussels and Washington
What the Ukrainians most urgently need is renewed commitments of military aid from Western allies. For them, it is a good deal because Ukrainians are paying a high price in human lives to contain Russia and because the future costs of further Russian advances in Europe would be astronomical.
However, among allies, opinion fatigue and internal divisions are beginning to take precedence over geostrategic interests.
In Europe, post-pandemic public opinion dissatisfaction is benefiting the far right, which is open to rapprochement with Putin. In Hungary, autocrat Viktor Orban – a notorious Putin sympathizer – is negotiating his consent to Ukraine's membership in the European Union.
Europe has done more than its share to support Ukraine both militarily and humanitarian, but European opinions could change if the United States shows up.
In Washington, Republicans in Congress are determined to blackmail the Biden administration into withholding funds promised to Ukraine for as long as possible – or perhaps blocking them entirely – with the sole aim of helping Donald Trump.
We cheer at Mar-A-Lago and in Moscow
Trump would obviously be one of the big winners from a possible collapse of the Ukrainian resistance. He keeps telling everyone that he would end this conflict in 24 hours, but his plan is probably nothing other than capitulation to Putin.
Speaking of Putin: It's not for nothing that we can see his smile through Botox. The Kremlin's master, who has just announced his intention to cling to power until his last breath, must already be preparing his next forays into Europe after his Mar-A-Lago protégé puts his plans to dismantle NATO into action had.