U.S. President Joe Biden attends an emergency meeting with G7 members following a missile attack on Polish soil near the Ukrainian border in Nusa Dua, Indonesia, on November 16, 2022. SAUL LOEB v AFP
Nine months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration has reason to be satisfied. Despite occasional disagreements, cohesion with allies remains strong, as the US President and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, were to underline at the White House on Thursday 1st December. The Ukrainian resistance, which took a heavy toll, made it possible to thwart all of the Kremlin’s plans. After all, western supplies of arms in favor of Kyiv represent a sizeable and very profitable investment considering that the Russian army was down without the use of regular Allied troops.
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Despite this preliminary assessment, there are concerns about the sustainability of the American strategy, while with the approaching winter there are no credible prospects for negotiations. These questions relate both to the realistic goals that Ukrainians could achieve – notably the Crimea issue – and the solidity of Western support in the face of growing public opinion fatigue. In a poll published by the Wall Street Journal in early November, the erosion of support for Ukraine was evident. Almost 30% of respondents thought the Biden administration was doing too much to help this country, up from 6% in March in the weeks following the Russian invasion. This shift is particularly massive among Republicans (48%).
“The United States is not putting pressure on Ukraine,” Jake Sullivan, the country’s national security adviser, said on November 10, days after another visit to Kyiv. However, the US Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, raised the possibility of a “diplomatic opening” should fighting slow down in the coming months. But the official line remains unchanged: it is up to the victim – Ukraine – to determine the parameters of its response. “We have never recognized Russia’s so-called annexation of Crimea,” said John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, in a meeting with the French press on November 29. It’s up to Mr. Zelensky [le président ukrainien] to determine how, when and under what circumstances he will negotiate with Vladimir Putin. »
Moscow’s short-term cancellation on November 28 of the bilateral meeting planned for the next day in Cairo with an American delegation to discuss the application of the New Start arms control treaty is a clear sign of mutual distrust. John Kirby called the postponement “deeply regrettable” and clarified that the White House “still doesn’t fully understand the reasons motivating Moscow.” The American official stressed the importance of communication channels with Russia at all levels, including the military.
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