Within 11 days, the Indian government met with representatives from the United States and Russia, without tilting its foreign policy to either side. The country declared itself neutral in the face of the war in Europe. This is how she has survived in the United Nations Security Council, where she has shied away from a nonpermanent chairmanship of condemning the Kremlin for invading Ukraine.
New Delhi is making the most of its diplomatic skills to get the best out of both sides. It needs US support in its border security issues and territorial disputes with China and Pakistan. He knows he would hardly have Russia on his side in these battles. All 5 countries in this equation are nuclear powers.
India also wants to avoid the risk of being sanctioned by the United States. There are reasons for fear. The country increased its oil imports from Russia, particularly after invading Ukraine, and remained the largest market for Russia’s defense industry for decades. He also doesn’t want to upset Moscow, which, in addition to fertilizer deliveries, can also turn off the two main deals.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a video conference call with US President Joe Biden on Monday (April 11). The White House said the dialogue was “open”. He acknowledged that not every country can use the same US retaliatory measures against Russia, including the embargo on the country’s oil imports. But he urged New Delhi to diversify its suppliers of the commodity and stop accelerated purchases from Russia.
The virtual meeting preceded an inperson meeting in a 2+2 format between Foreign Ministers Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Antony Blinken and Defense Ministers Rajnath Singh and Lloyd Austin. It took place in Washington. The Quartet sharpened their views on China’s threats to the security of the region bordering the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This joint effort has already been enshrined in the Quad (Quadrilateral Dialogue on Security) newly launched in 2017 by the US, India, Australia and Japan.
For India, this shield against China will be of great help in holding back the territorial demands of Beijing and perhaps Pakistan. “We appreciate the attention and energy the US is devoting to the quad. The entire IndoPacific has benefited from its growth and intensification over the past year. In fact, the quad has emerged as a powerful global force for good,” Jaishankar said.
In early April, India embraced Russia during German Chancellor Sergey Lavrov’s twoday visit to New Delhi. The meeting resulted in a commitment to create a mechanism for direct payment of foreign trade transactions in rupees, the Indian currency, and rubles, the Russian currency without going through the US dollar. Put into practice, the initiative will allow for the continued flow of Russian arms and fertilizers to India.
“I will put my country’s national interests and energy security first [dentre as prioridades]’ Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said at the end of Lavrov’s visit. “Why shouldn’t I buy it [petróleo]? I need it for my people.”
not aligned
It is not new that India is balancing between these two poles. During the Cold War (19471991), the country led the founding of the NonAligned Movement with Indonesia and Pakistan in 1955. Brazil was never a member but acted as an observer to the group. The aim was to protect these nations from pressure from the US and Soviet Union to become involved on one side or the other.
The RussiaUkraine war brought back this bipolar environment. India even offered to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. There was no progress. Modi held talks with Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in favor of a ceasefire. He sent humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian government. He also condemned the massacre of more than 400 civilians in the city of Bucha. Zelenskyy and the US accused Russia of the crime.
India is a nuclear power and one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the past decade according to the World Bank growing 5% from 2009 to 2018 and peaking at 8.2% in 2016. Its GDP (gross domestic product) fell in 2020 by 7.8% given the Covid pandemic. However, according to the IMF (International Monetary Fund), it rebounded strongly the following year when it rose by 8.5%. The institution expects a 9% increase this year.
The choice of neutrality in the face of war in Europe is steeped in pragmatism. Modi’s government could even reduce Russia’s oil imports under pressure from Biden. According to The Hindu newspaper, it filled its reservoirs with 13 million barrels of Russian oil at a reduced price as early as March as the war in Ukraine raged. In 2021, this import amounted to 16 million barrels.
The purchase of Russian arms may be delayed by New Delhi. But it would be unthinkable to stop this trade altogether because so much of India’s armaments came from Russia. Contracts include training, technical support and upgrades.
Buying fertilizers is a more sensitive issue. The country needs 30 million tons of input for its agricultural sector this year. Look for alternative care, e.g. in Canada. In 2020, it bought the equivalent of $609.7 million of this product from Russia.
According to Sipri (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), India was the largest arms buyer in the world from 2017 to 2021. Among its suppliers, Russia accounted for 46% of deliveries. However, much more has already accrued. These imports decreased by 21% compared to 20122016.
Sipri has developed a value measure to measure world trade in defense goods, the TIV (Trend Indicator Value). It takes into account the real purchase and sale price, the destructive power of the weapons and, in the case of used objects, also the depreciation. In 2021, India imported 1.39 billion TIV from Russia. From the US about ⅓ of which: 425 million TVI.
India’s purchasing potential is huge, and the US knows it. Last September, following a facetoface meeting between Biden and Modi at the White House, the US President briefed Congress on potential $2.5 billion in defense product sales to India.
Two months later, Russia began delivering the S400 surfacetoair missile systems acquired from New Delhi. Training of Indian soldiers by Russian forces had already taken place. The purchase was classified by the State Department as “dangerous and in nobody’s security interest”. At that time there were threats of sanctions against the country, which did not go any further.
enemies and quarrels
Shortly after gaining independence from the UK in 1947, India was besieged by enemies. It was no coincidence that the country, which Sipri says has 156 warheads, developed military nuclear technology. To the north and northeast is Pakistan with 165 warheads. In north and northwest China with 350 inhabitants. There are disputes over territories and border lines with both countries.
In Pakistan, the military conflict merges with the religious one. The nation was created in 1947 from the dismemberment of the territory of India. Received Indian Muslims. Tension is greater now because Modi’s nationalHindu policies distanced the country from the proposal to become a multireligious society.
Fear of action by Pakistani paramilitary groups, as has already happened in India, is exacerbating existing conflicts between the two nations. Indians do not forget the 6 attacks by the Pakistani organization LashkareTayyiba in Mumbai on November 2, 2008. They resulted in 164 deaths.
There are two points of contention: Islamabad wants possession of the Indian regions of Kashmir and Jummu; New Delhi demands Pakistani Kashmir. The 724kilometer highly militarized Line of Control between the two countries has been in a fragile truce since 2003. There have already been three wars between the two countries.
There are a number of problems with China. Beijing claims sovereignty over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls southern Tibet. He also wants Demchok, a corner of Ladakh state.
India claims the Aksai Chin region, which is part of China’s Xijiang Province, and Shaksgam, an area Pakistan ceded to China in 2013 Stimson, center Washington. In 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2020 there were frictions between military personnel at border crossings.
Tensions rose with the ChinaPakistan deal to create an economic corridor with $50 billion in investments. It would pass through disputed areas. Indian infrastructure works on the Chinese border have also raised the temperature. China’s installation of 5G antennas in the Himalayas was the latest crackdown. An ageold topic of friction is the reception of the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader and head of state.
However, there is one common concern of the USIndiaRussia trio: the Taliban’s takeover of the government of Afghanistan last year. Modi is the only one who speaks to the other 2 who invaded this country at different times and lost their wars there and maintains a dialogue with Kabul, the Afghan capital. Modi addressed the issue separately with Biden and Putin.
The fear of radicalization in the Muslim community in India is a constant for New Delhi. The country has already sat alongside China and Pakistan to address this security issue. But a trilateral talk between the US, India and Russia on this matter would be unthinkable. At least for now.