The worst of the heatwave is expected later this week through this weekend, with high temperatures approaching 10-15 degrees Fahrenheit (5-8 degrees Celsius) above normal in north and north-west India and parts of Pakistan.
Over a billion people will be exposed to excessive heat – 10% of the world’s population, according to the report Scott Duncanan expert in extreme climates.
This region, including New Delhi, could endure temperatures in the mid to over 40 degrees Celsius – meaning temperatures over 110 and as high as 120 degrees Fahrenheit are possible.
And unfortunately this heat does not sleep.
Extreme nighttime temperatures can be deadly
There will be little to no relief during the night hours as minimum temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees Celsius in many areas.
Prolonged periods of warm nights can prove deadly as they limit the body’s ability to recover from the daytime heat.
This poses a major problem for the Indian population, as a large part lives without air conditioning, which leads to a life-threatening situation, especially for the elderly.
Bahmer, a city in India, recorded a high of 45.1 degrees Celsius — a whopping 113 degrees Fahrenheit — on Tuesday.
On the same day, a station in Pakistan set the record for the northern hemisphere’s highest maximum temperature of 116.6 degrees Fahrenheit (47 degrees Celsius). Maximilian Herreraan expert on climate extremes.
Extremely hot March breaks 122-year temperature record
Before the current extreme swell, temperatures in March and April were consistently above average.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the average maximum temperature recorded for all of India in March 2022 was the highest in the last 122 years.
This year’s average high temperature in March was 91.58 degrees Fahrenheit (33.10 degrees Celsius), just surpassing the previous record set in 2010 of 91.56 degrees Fahrenheit (33.09 degrees Celsius).
Since March 11, 15 of India’s states and union territories have been hit by heatwaves, according to the Center for Science and Environment (CSE), adding that “Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have suffered the most among states, with 25 heatwaves and severe heatwave days each During this time.”
The pressure pattern associated with the La Niña conditions currently prevailing in the Pacific is lasting longer than expected. This, along with warm waves from the Arctic, has led to the formation of heat waves, according to Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland.
The current impact of La Niña on the spring and summer season in India is totally unexpected, Murtugudde added.
April and May, known as the pre-monsoon season, are usually the hottest months of the year when the region bakes endlessly.
This heat would build into the summer months were it not for the cloud cover and rain that the monsoon season provides.
The relief, though welcome, comes slowly.
The monsoon season, which brings much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures to India, generally begins in early June over the southern part of the country.
However, it is taking more than a full month to bring relief to the places in northern India currently being hit the hardest by the heatwave.
On the plus side, the models show that seasonal monsoon rainfall is likely to be 99% of normal rainfall, according to IMD.
Monsoons are vital to the region as they provide much of India’s annual rainfall, support irrigation for agriculture and provide relief from the intense heat waves during the pre-monsoon season.
India’s heatwaves are only getting worse
As with many other extreme weather events, heat waves are becoming more intense due to climate change.
“The future of heatwaves looks worse even with significant mitigation of climate change, and much worse without mitigation,” said Elfatih Eltahir, professor of hydrology and climate at MIT.
India is among the countries expected to be hardest hit by the impacts of the climate crisis, according to the United Nations climate agency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC’s most recent Science Report, August 2021, noted with “high confidence” that hot extremes have increased in South Asia and that these rising extreme temperatures are the result of human-caused climate change.
“More intense heatwaves of longer duration and frequency are projected over India,” it said.
Without any change, a potential humanitarian crisis could be underway across India as large parts of the country could potentially become too hot to be habitable.