Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi pose for photos before their meeting on the lawn of Hyderabad House in New Delhi March 19, 2022.
Prakash Singh | AFP | Getty Images
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have unknowingly placed India in the sweet center of an Indo-Pacific diplomatic triangle.
As the war enters its fourth week, New Delhi is receiving an influx of high-profile visitors from capitals around the world.
On the one hand, they included delegations from the United States, Australia and Japan, the three nations that are India’s partners in the Quad, officially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
The Quad is ready to look past India’s refusal – including in four recent UN resolutions – to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As an informal grouping, the Quad works to deepen strategic cooperation on security, technology and economic issues while countering China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
The high profile visits continue.
Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias arrived on Tuesday and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will visit in early April. But in a surprising turn of events, even traditional rival China India is at this point making overtures to seek New Delhi’s approval of a visit by Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Other Admirer Russia, for decades India’s trusted arms supplier, is now also becoming a supplier of discounted crude oil to New Delhi as Moscow balks at sanctions enforced by Western consumers of its natural gas.
New Delhi is basking in its sudden spotlight
On Monday, US Undersecretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland met Indian Foreign Minister Harsh Vardhan Shringla to reaffirm the two countries’ commitment to common goals in the Indo-Pacific.
There was a brief allusion to the war in Ukraine, but it was almost an afterthought, mentioned at the end of the editions related to South Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and West Asia. If India was dissatisfied with its “somewhat shaky” position on Ukraine, which President Joe Biden alluded to hours later in Washington, it was not mentioned in statements after the official talks.
The talks with the US were preceded by meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida in New Delhi on Saturday and a virtual consultation with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday.
Talks on China were the focus of both summits. While Modi raised the June 2020 border dispute on the Himalayan border, Kishida referred to the territorial dispute with China over the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu.
Kishida announced a US$42 billion investment in India and also invited Modi to the next Quad Summit in Japan later this year. Again, there was no indication of India’s attitude toward Ukraine, save for calls for an end to the war.
Morrison has expressed understanding for India’s position on Ukraine, Shringla said, informing reporters. “There was much consolation … both sides saw that the conflict in Europe should not be a reason for us to divert our attention from the Indo-Pacific region,” he said.
A visit by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to New Delhi is also planned. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is due to hold talks with Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi later this month to prepare the ground for Johnson’s yet-to-be-announced visit.
China’s shifting tone towards India
China’s proposal for its foreign minister’s visit comes just after two years of a bloody confrontation between Chinese and Indian soldiers in Ladakh that claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers in June 2020.
India has not yet committed to the visit, but China seems keen to partially secure Modi’s personal attendance at this year’s BRICS summit. The annual meeting of heads of state and government from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will be hosted by China this year. A Russia-India-China summit could also take place on the sidelines.
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China has also proposed an “Indo-China Civilization Dialogue” to be held in both countries and an Indo-China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum.
In recent weeks, the nationalist newspaper Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, has shown a marked shift in tone towards India. “China and India have common interests on many fronts. For example, the West has recently pointed the finger at India for allegedly considering buying Russian oil at a reduced price. But it is India’s legitimate right,” the newspaper said in an essay last week.
The US and its partners – in Europe and Asia – need India on their side in long-term peer competition with China. They therefore have more understanding of India’s predicament.
Commenting on Kishida’s visit to New Delhi, the Global Times called the Japanese prime minister a “lobbyist” who failed to “sway India over Ukraine”.
“Although Kishida Modi urged a tougher stance on Russia on Ukraine during his first visit to India after taking office, the joint statement released later showed that Japanese lobbying failed to meet Washington and Canberra’s expectations,” according to the Global Times said.
And on Sunday, Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan – India’s traditional enemy and close ally of China – also praised India’s “independent foreign policy”.
India’s “Accidental” Geopolitics
India’s value as a democracy and ability as the only other military power capable of standing up to Chinese aggression in Asia is not lost on the Quad. But much will depend on how well India – more nimble under Modi – articulates its position on Ukraine.
“India today is in an enviable position because of years of careful diplomacy and random geopolitics,” Aparna Pande, a South Asia expert at the Hudson Institute, a Washington DC think tank, told CNBC.
“The US and its partners – in Europe and Asia – need India on their side in long-term peer competition with China. They therefore have more understanding of India’s predicament.”
But Pande warned that India’s reluctance as a democracy and as a key member of the Indo-Pacific to support the liberal international order will be remembered.
India faces a tough choice, said Bruce Bennett of the Rand Corporation, a think tank headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
“The key question is whether India wants to be known as a principled country or as a nationalist country. A principled country opposes any violation of national borders, whether Russia invades Ukraine or China invades parts of India,” he said.
“If India decides to ‘sit on the fence’ to maximize its national leverage and influence, many people around the world will lose sympathy with India’s concerns about its own territorial integrity.”