NEW DELHI (AP) — India is exploring ways to avoid a major disruption to Russian-made arms supplies amid US sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tightrope walk could be made more difficult by the ongoing border standoff with China.
Experts say up to 60% of Indian defense equipment comes from Russia, and New Delhi has found itself in a quandary as it faces a two-year standoff with China in eastern Ladakh over a territorial dispute with tens of thousands of people. soldier at gunpoint. In 2020, twenty Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed in clashes.
“A nightmare scenario for India would be if the US comes to the conclusion that it faces a greater threat from Russia and that this justifies a strategic agreement with China. To put it bluntly, acknowledge Chinese dominance in Asia while maintaining its European flank,” wrote Shyam Saran, India’s former foreign minister, in a recent blog post.
Will China, learning from Ukraine, become an aggressor in disputed eastern Ladakh or Taiwan?
“It is quite possible that they could do that,” said Jitendra Nath Mishra, a retired diplomat and distinguished fellow at the Jindal School of International Affairs.
President Joe Biden spoke of unresolved differences with India after the country abstained on UN resolutions against Russian aggression in Ukraine. Modi has so far avoided voting against Russia or criticizing Putin for invading Ukraine.
In the early 1990s, about 70% of the Indian Army’s weapons, 80% of the Air Force’s systems and 85% of the Navy’s platforms were Soviet-made. India is now reducing its reliance on Russian weapons and diversifying its defense purchases by buying more weapons from countries such as the US, Israel, France and Italy.
Russia accounted for almost 49% of India’s defense imports in 2016-2020, while France and Israel accounted for 18% and 13%, respectively, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
India is not only dependent on Russian weapons, but also heavily dependent on Moscow for military modernization and modernization as it moves towards self-sufficiency in its defense sector, said Lieutenant General Sergeant Huda, a former Indian military commander.
“Russia is the only country that has leased a nuclear submarine to India. Will any other country lease a nuclear submarine to India?” Huda asked.
Sushant Singh, senior fellow at the Center for Policy Studies, said: “The Indian Navy has one aircraft carrier. It is Russian. Most of India’s fighters and about 90% of its battle tanks are Russian.”
In 1987, the Indian Navy leased a Charlie-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine from the former Soviet Union for training. Later, another Soviet submarine Chakra-2 took its place. In 2019, India signed a $3 billion contract to lease the Akula-1 class nuclear attack submarine from Russia for a period of 10 years. It is expected to be delivered by 2025.
India bought its only aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya from Russia in 2004. The aircraft carrier served during the former Soviet Union and then in the Russian Navy. India’s first 40,000-ton aircraft carrier is undergoing sea trials ahead of a scheduled entry into service next year.
India also has four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
Currently, the Indian Air Force operates more than 410 Soviet and Russian fighters, which are a combination of imported and licensed platforms. The inventory of Russian-made Indian military equipment also includes submarines, tanks, helicopters, submarines, frigates and missiles.
Misra said the US has shown no willingness to transfer technology to India.
“I would like to ask our American friends: what kind of defense technologies did you provide us with? What the US is offering is the F-16 fighter, redesignated the F-21. The F-16 is obsolete from an Indian point of view. We chose the MiG-21 in the 1960s because India was denied the F-104. We are seeing the same thing,” he said.
“Under the AUKUS agreement, the US is willing to share nuclear submarine propulsion technology with Australia, but does not want to share it with India,” he added, referring to the tripartite security pact between the US, UK and Australia.
In September, Australia decided to terminate a multibillion-dollar contract to buy French diesel-electric submarines and said it would instead acquire American nuclear-powered vessels in a new Indo-Pacific defense deal under AUKUS.
During the presidency of Donald Trump, the US and India entered into defense deals worth more than $3 billion. Bilateral defense trade has increased from almost zero in 2008 to $15 billion in 2019. India’s major purchases from the United States included long-range maritime patrol aircraft, C-130 transport aircraft, missiles and drones.
As the Ukrainian crisis deepens, India faces the challenge of dealing with international sanctions against Russia.
A deal with Russia over S-400 missile systems with Moscow put India at risk of US sanctions after Washington asked its partners not to buy Russian military equipment. The S-400 is a sophisticated air defense system that is expected to give India a strategic deterrent against rivals China and Pakistan.
New Delhi has turned to Washington and its allies for support in confronting China, the common backbone for the Indo-Pacific Security Alliance known as the Four, which also includes Australia and Japan.
Tracing the history of India’s acquisition of Soviet weapons, S.S.S. Bangara, a retired admiral in the navy, said India began looking for arms and ammunition after the war with China in 1962.
The Cold War brought the United States closer to China. As an intermediary, Pakistan has a trump card that can be used to win the full support of the US government in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict, he said.
During India’s war with Pakistan in December 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh, the US deployed a task force led by the USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal to support Pakistan.
According to Bangara, in the mid-1960s, India entered into a series of acquisition agreements with the Soviet Union that ran for the next 40 years.
“It wasn’t smooth sailing, especially when the Soviet Union collapsed. The long chain of educational institutions along with the logistics chain collapsed when the Union broke up into smaller states,” he said.
Even though India is diversifying its defense purchases from the US, Israel, France and other countries, Bangar said it could take 20 years to overcome its dependence on Russian supplies and spare parts.
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Associated Press contributor Aijaz Hussain contributed to this report from Srinagar, India.