This is according to the latest study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute [SIPRI]the Russian defense industry lost export market shares between 2013-17 and 2018-22. And if Russia has lost ground to the United States in this area, it risks being overtaken by France, whose market share has increased by 44%.
This trend could intensify in the coming years. Indeed, Moscow’s priority in the coming years should be to replace its armed forces’ equipment destroyed in the war in Ukraine, even if that means gaining export market share.
In addition, countries tempted to buy Russian equipment could be deterred from ordering by the threat of sanctions, such as the United States is empowering under the so-called CAATSA law. [Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act]. This device, for example, “spoiled” the sale of 11 Su-35 fighter-bombers to Indonesia… which also benefited the Rafale of French Dassault Aviation.
However, the threat of possible US sanctions hasn’t stopped New Delhi from procuring five Russian S-400 Triumph air defense batteries for $5.43 billion, reflecting the importance of its arms market.
Indeed, according to the SIPRI study, India remains “the world’s largest arms importer”, even though its imports fell by 11% between 2013-17 and 2018-22 due to the “Make in India” policy and… the complexity of its supply processes. And the Russian defense industry is the main supplier to the Indian armed forces.
However, despite the purchase of S-400, this position is seriously eroding as New Delhi has committed to diversifying its supply sources, benefiting American and especially French manufacturers. “France has overtaken the United States as India’s second largest arms supplier after Russia,” the Swedish institute noted.
The fact that the armaments industry has so far managed to maintain this first place in India is due, among other things, to the logistical support of the equipment that has already been delivered, in particular the combat aircraft [MiG-29, Su-30 MKI, etc]. But that can’t last…especially if delivery times aren’t met.
However, this is exactly what the Indian Air Force criticizes [IAF] to Russian industrialists. “Due to the war in Ukraine, Russia is unable to deliver vital equipment that it had promised,” she said in a statement sent to India’s parliament this week. And to mention, without giving details, a “major delivery” planned for 2023, which “finally will not take place”.
It is possible that it is an S-400 battery – two of the five ordered have not yet been delivered – or a batch of spare parts for the Su-30 MKI, of which the IAF has almost 250 copies. In any case, because of these supply difficulties in connection with the war in Ukraine, the latter reduced the level of its modernization investments by a third compared to the previous budget year.
Another reason likely to push New Delhi increasingly away from the Russian defense industry in the coming years is Moscow’s desire to significantly strengthen its ties with Beijing, as this week’s meeting between Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and his Chinese demonstrated counterpart, Xi Jinping.