INSIGHT Ukrainian Farmers Deadlocked, Fueling Global Food Shortage Fears

March 11 – The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens millions of tiny spring shoots that are set to emerge from dormant winter wheat stalks in the coming weeks. If farmers can’t feed these crops soon, far fewer so-called cultivators will sprout, jeopardizing the national wheat crop on which millions of people in the developing world depend.

The wheat was planted last fall and after a short growing season it is gone for the winter. However, before the grain comes back to life, farmers usually spread fertilizer, which encourages shoots to regrow from the main stems. Each stalk can have three or four stalks, increasing the yield per stalk of wheat exponentially.

But Ukrainian farmers, who had a record grain harvest last year, say they now lack fertilizer, as well as pesticides and herbicides. And even if they had enough of these materials, they couldn’t get enough fuel to power their equipment, they add.

Olena Neroba, business development manager for Kiev-based grain brokerage Maxigrain, said that winter wheat yields in Ukraine could fall by 15% compared to previous years if fertilizers are not applied now. Some farmers warn that the situation could be much worse.

Some Ukrainian farmers have told Reuters that their wheat harvest could be halved or more, with implications far beyond Ukraine. Countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen and others have come to rely on Ukrainian wheat in recent years. The war has already led to a sharp increase in wheat prices – they have risen by 50% in the last month.

The crisis in Ukrainian agriculture has come as food prices around the world have been rising for several months amid problems with the global supply chain associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. World food prices hit a record high in February and are up more than 24% for the year, the UN food agency said last week. On Friday, agriculture ministers from the world’s seven largest advanced economies were scheduled to discuss the impact of the Russian invasion on global food security and ways to stabilize food markets in a virtual meeting.

International food and feed prices could rise by 20% as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, triggering a jump in global malnutrition, the UN food agency said Friday. More

Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, which together account for about a third of world exports, almost all of which passes through the Black Sea.

Svein Tore Holseter, president of Norwegian company Yara International, the world’s largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers, said he was concerned that tens of millions of people would suffer food insecurity due to the agricultural crisis in Ukraine. “What matters to me is not whether we are heading for a global food crisis,” he said, “but how big the crisis will be.”

Ukrainian officials say they are still hopeful that the year will be relatively successful for the country. Much of that hope rests with farmers in the west of the country, who are still far from the shooting.

But officials are taking steps to protect domestic supplies to keep Ukraine’s population fed, which could deal another blow to export supplies. Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko said on Tuesday that the country is banning the export of various staple foods, including wheat. Leshchenko acknowledged the threat to Ukraine’s food supply and that the government is doing everything it can to help farmers.

“We understand that food for the entire state depends on what is in the fields,” he said in a televised speech on Monday.

Moscow says it is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine to demilitarize and capture dangerous nationalists. He denies deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, despite documented attacks on hospitals, apartment buildings and railroads.

Grain export is the cornerstone of the Ukrainian economy.

In the coming weeks, farmers should also start planting other crops such as corn and sunflowers, but they are struggling to get the seeds they need, said Andriy Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agricultural Council, which represents about 1,000 farmers farming five million hectares. .

Andrei warned that now the acute problem is fuel. If farmers don’t get diesel fuel to run their equipment, spring farming will be impossible and this year’s harvest will be doomed. “Farmers are desperate,” he said. “There is a big risk that we won’t have enough food to feed our people.”

Maxigrain’s Neroba said farmers are facing fuel shortages because military needs are prioritized.

Ukrainian farmer Oleksandr Chumak said there was little work in his fields, about 200 kilometers north of the Black Sea port of Odessa. He cultivates 3,000 hectares (about 7,500 acres) where he grows wheat, corn, sunflower and rapeseed. Even if he had enough fuel to get his equipment into the field, he said he didn’t have enough fertilizer for all of his crops and no herbicides.

“Usually we have six to seven tons (of wheat) per hectare. This year, I think that if we get three tons per hectare, it will be very good,” Chumak said. He added that he remains hopeful that Ukrainian farmers will find a way to grow enough food to feed their countrymen, but does not expect much to be exported.

In northern Ukraine, he said, his friends were forced to scavenge fuel from a ditch that was filled with diesel fuel after the Russians attacked a train that spilled fuel from several tanks. Chumak said other friends in the occupied areas near Kherson are collecting diesel fuel from ambushed and abandoned Russian tanker convoys.

He currently spends most of his time preparing for a Russian attack. “I live in Odessa. Every day I see rockets flying over my house.”

Val Sigaev, grain broker RJ O’Brien in Kyiv, who evacuated last week, said it was not clear how normal spring tillage – planting and fertilizing – would be possible. High prices for natural gas, the main source of fertilizer, have driven up fertilizer prices, so some farmers have delayed purchases.

“Some people think that we could sow up to half of the crop,” Sigaev said. “Others say that only the West will see the crops, and what is produced will be strictly for Ukrainian needs.”

The situation is particularly dire in the southern port city of Kherson, the first Ukrainian city that Russia captured after the Feb. 24 invasion of the country. Spring weather heightens the urgency of farmers if they don’t take to their fields now, this year. the harvest will be overkill.

Andriy Pastushenko is the CEO of a 1,500-hectare farm west of the city, near the mouth of the Dnieper. Last autumn they planted about 1,000 hectares of wheat, barley and rapeseed. His farm workers now need to get to those fields, but he says they can’t, and they’ve lost access to fuel. “We are completely cut off from the civilized world and the rest of Ukraine.”

In addition, many of Pastushenko’s 80 workers cannot work on the farm because they live several miles to the north, behind the front lines. The manager’s problems are exacerbated by the fact that this region is drier than other agricultural areas of the country, and its fields need irrigation. And it also requires fuel.

Unlike many, Pastushenko has a 50-ton reserve of nitrogen fertilizers. However, given the fighting around him, he’s not sure if that’s a good thing: Fertilizer is highly explosive. “If something falls from a helicopter, it could blow everything up,” he said.

He said he was afraid the harvest would be bad. Last year, his wheat and barley fields produced about five metric tons per hectare. Unless he sprays insecticide — which he says he can’t get — and scatters fertilizer, he doubts he’ll get a third of that.

“I have no idea if we can collect anything,” he said. “Something will come off the ground, but it won’t be enough to feed our livestock and pay our staff.”

About 150 kilometers west of Pastushenko’s farm is the Black Sea port of Odessa, which remains under Ukrainian control. In peacetime, most Ukrainian agricultural exports end up on ships in the port, the busiest in Ukraine. Today the ships do not leave, and the city is besieged by Russian troops.

Most of Ukraine’s crop was to be exported to North Africa, the Middle East and the Levant. According to the UN World Food Program (WFP), Ukraine supplies Lebanon with more than half of imported wheat, Tunisia imports 42%, and Yemen almost a quarter. Ukraine has become the WFP’s largest food supplier.

In some countries, rising prices could hurt both governments and consumers due to government food subsidies.

Egypt, which has become increasingly dependent on Ukrainian and Russian wheat over the past decade, heavily subsidizes bread for its population. As wheat prices rise, the government will be under pressure to increase the price of bread, said Sikandra Kurdi, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Dubai.

The country’s food subsidy program currently costs the government about $5.5 billion a year. At present, almost two-thirds of the population can buy five loaves of round bread a day for 50 cents a month.

Other developing countries with similar subsidies will also struggle with rising wheat prices. In 2019, protests against rising bread prices in Sudan contributed to the ouster of the head of state, Omar al-Bashir.

For countries that provide large subsidies, rising food prices will mean either governments take on more debt or consumers pay higher prices, Kurdi said.

Reporting by Maurice Tamman in New York, David Gauthier-Villars in Istanbul, Sarah MacFarlane in Sydney and Sarah El-Safti in Cairo; Editing by Kassel Bryan-Low in London

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