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CAIRO – Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a tour of eight Middle East countries on Thursday and touted progress on postwar planning for the Gaza Strip, but received little public enthusiasm from regional states crucial to the plan's success.
Arab leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries have insisted that any postwar plan must include a path to an independent state that unites the West Bank and Gaza Strip under a Palestinian-led government.
But that idea struck a chord during Blinken's visit to Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow the creation of a Palestinian state and his ministers disparaged the Biden administration's approach to the long-running territorial dispute.
“Secretary Blinken, it is not time to speak quietly to Hamas, it is time to use the big stick,” Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir wrote on social media during Blinken’s visit.
Blinken's conversations with Israeli officials reveal divisions over Gaza
While acknowledging the wide divide between the two sides, U.S. officials said Blinken's talks with Arab leaders were far more extensive and detailed than in his previous three trips to the region since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, in which about 1,200 Israelis were killed.
“What was different about this trip is that I think on our previous trips here there was a reluctance to talk about some of the 'day after' topics… but now we're finding that our partners are very focused on that “These questions,” Blinken told reporters before boarding a plane back to Washington.
At a meeting in Dubai in early December, for example, Arab leaders rejected Blinken's attempts to discuss Gaza's post-Hamas future, insisting instead that the United States should pressure Israel to implement an immediate ceasefire.
Now Arab leaders have shown a willingness to consider what role they could play in ushering in a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority that brings new and younger faces into the government led by 88-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas, who led the agency for years, is widely viewed by Palestinians as corrupt and out of touch with the needs of ordinary people. Senior Jordanian and Egyptian officials have spoken in recent days about advising Abbas to consider stepping down in favor of the next generation of Palestinian leaders. However, it is unclear whether Abbas would accept this.
There are limits to how much trust Arab leaders will place in Washington as its main Middle East ally devastates entire neighborhoods and residential buildings in Gaza in a relentless effort to destroy Hamas.
South Africa brings a genocide case against Israel to the UN's top court
Israeli strikes killed nearly 250 Gazans in the 24 hours before Blinken's arrival in Israel, making it one of the deadliest days for Palestinians in a conflict that has already claimed more than 23,000 lives, according to local health authorities. Lawyers representing South Africa have accused Israel of genocide and appealed to the United Nations' top court to stop the military operation. Both Israel and the United States reject the attempt.
“Most Arab leaders are extremely skeptical of U.S. plans to stabilize Gaza after the conflict,” said Hussein Ibish, a Middle East expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “There are real doubts about the ability of the United States to contain Israel.”
In Israel, where the Biden administration has accelerated the transfer of billions of dollars worth of powerful bombs, weapons and ammunition, in some cases bypassing congressional review, U.S. largesse has done little to quell opposition to U.S -Suggestions to mitigate.
The two sides continue to disagree on a range of issues, including when Palestinians can return to the northern Gaza Strip and when the Palestinian Authority can receive tax revenue collected by Israel. Bigger questions such as agreeing on a path to a Palestinian state, a central demand of Arab and U.S. postwar planning, seem more distant than ever.
“This coalition will certainly not even verbally endorse a two-state solution,” said Natan Sachs, an Israel expert at the Brookings Institution, referring to the Israeli ruling coalition that includes far-right politicians.
But he warned that U.S. planning could pay off if another Israeli government came to power – a possibility given widespread domestic criticism of Netanyahu's handling of the conflict. “It is important to remember that this coalition may not last beyond 2024,” Sachs said.
But the promise of a new Israeli government at some point in the future comes as no relief to Palestinians in the southern Gaza Strip, especially after Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant Blinken said Israel would “intensify” its offensive there.
The timing of the operations caused disputes between U.S. and Israeli officials. While Netanyahu and Gallant said the campaign would last months, U.S. officials wanted the high-intensity campaign to end in December. Now Israeli officials have said heavy bombing will continue until at least the end of January, raising the prospect of significantly more casualties in the coming weeks.
A senior State Department official said Blinken's meetings with Israelis served several important purposes, including rejecting Israeli proposals that the United States views as completely unrealistic. Gallant, for example, has pushed his own postwar plan for Gaza, which excludes any role for the Palestinian Authority and calls for an international force led by the United States to provide security in Gaza, with reconstruction financed by the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Blinken's team made clear that the United States was unwilling to commit troops to maintaining peace in Gaza and that Israel could only secure Arab financing for reconstruction through a credible path to a two-state solution. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic moves.
Ibish said Israel's tactics in Gaza, which “have rendered the area virtually uninhabitable with few undamaged structures remaining,” are affecting trust between Washington and its Arab allies.
“Once Arab governments feel that Washington's policies are proving effective, which is still not the prevailing view, then American leadership in post-conflict stabilization in Gaza would be seen as much more credible,” he said.
However, this will be set back significantly “if it appears that Washington is increasingly ineffectively holding back its closest regional ally, Israel,” he added.
In an Israeli War Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Blinken said comments from Ben Gvir and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich about the permanent expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza were extremely unhelpful and that Netanyahu must publicly disavow them, the senior State Department official said. Netanyahu made it clear on Wednesday that the ministers did not speak for the government on this policy.
Before flying back to Washington, Blinken expressed optimism, saying: “Because things are so difficult, I think this only reinforces the commitment of countries to work on a real solution.”