International efforts to help Libya, which has fallen victim to tsunamilike floods that killed more than 5,000 people and left thousands missing, have intensified since Thursday. Military aircraft and ships from Middle Eastern and European countries are carrying emergency aid to the wartorn North African country.
In addition to the dead and missing, tens of thousands of people were displaced by Sunday’s flash floods caused by Storm Daniel, which particularly affected the coastal town of Derna.
Witnesses compared the floods to a tsunami. Two dams on the Derna River burst, causing floods of water and mud that destroyed buildings and vehicles along the way. Many people were washed into the sea. Bodies appeared in the Mediterranean on Tuesday, with water turning the color of mud.
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said most of the deaths “could have been avoided” if early warning and emergency management systems had worked properly.
One survivor shared how he and his mother managed to escape the floods. “Within seconds the water level rose. “I left with my mother to seek refuge in my brother’s house, who lives on a hill, but the waves swept us away before we threw ourselves onto the stairs of an empty building four houses away from ours,” he explained his hospital bed, according to the statement released by Benghazi Medical Center (East). “We went up the stairs and the water rose with us to the fourth floor. From the window I saw cars and bodies swept away by the water,” he added.
The United Nations has pledged $10 million (R49.2 million) to help survivors in Libya, including at least 30,000 people who were left homeless in Derna, according to the organization. This figure represents almost a third of the eastern Libyan city’s population before the disaster.
The challenges for humanitarian workers are immense. “Roads are blocked, destroyed and flooded, making humanitarian access difficult,” the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said. In addition, the bridges over the Derna River that connect the east of the city with the west collapsed, the UN agency reported.
The UK announced US$1.25 million (R$6.1 million) in initial aid and said it was working with “trusted local partners” to identify the most urgent basic needs, including shelter, medical care and sanitation. The president of neighboring Egypt, Abdel Fattah alSissi, ordered the establishment of camps for homeless people. France sent almost 40 rescuers and tons of medical supplies as well as a field hospital. Turkey, one of the first countries to offer assistance, said it would send additional aid by boat, including two field hospitals. The country is also awaiting the arrival of an Italian ship with logistical and medical assistance.
The European Union announced aid deliveries from Germany, Romania and Finland. Algeria, Qatar and Tunisia also promised help. The government of the United Arab Emirates sent two planes with 150 tons of aid. The Palestinian press announced the dispatch of a rescue mission and Jordan sent a military plane with food, tents, blankets and mattresses. Libya, a country with large oil reserves, is still recovering from the war and chaos following the uprising that toppled and killed dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The press reports even more serious victims. A source at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said 10,000 people may have been missing due to the floods. Another source warned of the danger posed by landmines being washed away by the water.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that at least 38,640 people were displaced in the worsthit areas of northeastern Libya, including at least 30,000 in Derna, 3,000 in Al Baida and more than 2,000 in Benghazi. This UN agency estimates that 884,000 people are directly affected by this disaster.
Floods in the city of Derna in eastern Libya.
Experts say warmer seas and political chaos caused disaster
Rising water temperatures in the Mediterranean, political chaos and poor infrastructure are the main causes of the devastating floods in Libya, according to experts. Storm Daniel formed around September 4 and caused death and destruction in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey last week before reaching Libya.
These Mediterranean storms, which have characteristics of tropical cyclones and hurricanes, occur only one to three times a year.
To form, they require flows of heat and moisture, “which are enhanced by high sea surface temperatures,” says Professor Suzanne Gray from the department of meteorology at the University of Reading in Brittany.
For several weeks now, surface waters in the eastern Mediterranean and Atlantic have been between 2°C and 3°C warmer than usual. “They probably caused heavier rainfall,” several scientists said during a meeting of Britain’s weather warning system.
“There is a direct link between increased rainfall and flooding. Added to this are local weather conditions. In this case, it is due to a persistent blockage of high pressure that is currently dissolving,” explain the scientists. However, experts admit that it is currently difficult to say whether such events will become more common in the future. According to some models, climate change could reduce the number of cyclones in the Mediterranean but increase their intensity.
Most scientists shy away from drawing direct connections between individual weather phenomena and longterm climate change. However, Storm Daniel “shows the kind of devastating flooding we can increasingly expect in the future,” said Lizzie Kendon, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol, as the world gets hotter.
According to the European Copernicus Observatory, superheated sea surface temperatures, absorbing 90% of the excess heat generated by human activities since the industrial era, are driving record temperatures worldwide and 2023 is likely to be the hottest year in history.
Other factors
But the weather doesn’t explain everything. Some analysts believe Libya’s fragmented political landscape a country torn by more than a decade of civil war after the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled from 1969 to 2011 also contributed to the disaster.
The North African country is split between two rival governments: the internationally recognized UN administration based in the capital Tripoli in the west and a separate government in the east that has been hit by floods. “It is true that climate change may make extreme weather events more frequent, unpredictable and severe, in ways that could exceed the capacity of our existing infrastructures and systems to cope with these events,” says Leslie Mabon, professor of environmental systems at the UK Open University. “But at the same time,” Leslie added, “social, political and economic factors determine who and where we are most at risk of suffering the greatest harm when these extreme events occur.”
The loss of life is also a consequence of Libya’s limited forecasting, warning and evacuation capabilities, emphasizes Kevin Collins, a professor at the Open University. The disaster exposed deficiencies in the city’s infrastructure and planning and design standards, he adds.
Political conditions in Libya “pose challenges for the development of communication and risk assessment strategies for coordinating rescue operations and potentially also for maintaining critical infrastructure such as dams,” added Leslie Mabon.