Russian citizens, unlike their Chinese counterparts, have gained access to American technology platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Google, although they have been subject to censorship and restrictions, a defining feature of the Chinese Internet model. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has isolated the country more and more in recent days, could also be the death knell for its presence on the web. The government said it had decided to block Facebook, citing the social network’s move in recent days to impose restrictions on Russian-controlled media outlets. The government of President Vladimir Putin is ready to persecute world famous names if they do not follow the party line. (Instagram and WhatsApp, which are more popular in Russia and are also owned by parent company Facebook Meta, are not blocked yet.) The country’s main telecommunications agency, Roskomnadzor, is already pressuring Google (GOOGL) over what they call “false” information and has reportedly also restricted Twitter (TWTR). Other platforms prefer to go out of business on their own. Being cut off from Russia may not pose an existential threat to Western technology platforms, some of which have audiences in the billions. But these moves have serious implications for Russians’ ability to access information and express themselves freely. On a more fundamental level, this could further accelerate the destruction of the global internet as we know it.
Digital Iron Curtain
Many of Russia’s recent restrictions on Western tech platforms stem from Russia’s 2019 “sovereign internet” law, which allows Roskomnadzor to more tightly control internet access in the country and potentially sever its online ties to the rest of the world entirely. . The law passed by Putin’s government on Friday further heightens hostility towards Western services by making it a crime to spread “fake” information about the invasion of Ukraine, with a penalty of up to 15 years in prison, according to the Defense Committee. Journalists. The law prompted several news outlets, including CNN, to suspend their coverage in Russia. TikTok also cited the new legal environment by announcing its decision to ban new uploads and live streams on its platform in Russia. Other technology companies have previously reduced their presence in Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine. Apple, Microsoft and Intel have stopped all sales and restricted services in the country, while Google, Twitter, Netflix (NFLX), Spotify (SPOT) and Meta have blocked or restricted Russian state media and, in some cases, suspended advertising in the country. at all. Cogent Communications, one of the world’s largest Internet traffic hubs, reportedly began cutting some Russian service providers off its network on Friday.
This is the perfect storm that could lead to Russia finally isolating its population from the rest of the global internet, as China has already done.
“The crisis is definitely a flashpoint and likely a turning point for Western platforms operating in Russia,” Jessica Brandt, policy director for the AI and Emerging Technologies Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told CNN Business. “Moscow will no doubt continue to push platforms to remove unflattering content using every leverage at its disposal. If the companies comply, the public reaction in other parts of the world will be harsh,” she added.
The term used to refer to the two countries’ respective censorship apparatuses is also similar: Where China has a Great Firewall, Russia has dubbed it the Digital Iron Curtain. But while there are many similarities between the two, there are also some key differences that cast doubt on Russia’s ability to maintain its own autonomous digital ecosystem.
Can the Russian Internet survive without Western technology?
While China has spent decades building up its far-reaching censorship capabilities and has almost always blocked most Western technology platforms from operating in the country, Russia is trying to do just that by waging war. Russia’s ability to use the same level of technology as China is questionable, whether it’s completely shutting down Western platforms or even censoring certain content and topics in real time, as the Chinese government often does.
“I think one subtle difference between Russia and China is that China has the technical capability — their Great Firewall is very complex, and Russia doesn’t have that much,” said Xiaomeng Lu, director of geotechnology practice in Eurasia. Group. “To what extent do they [Russia] want to do a comprehensive, complete lockdown, I think there are some technical issues.”
Unlike China, millions of people in Russia are accustomed to accessing global technology platforms, and cutting them off entirely from those platforms is a move that the Russian government under Putin has so far refrained from doing. But the situation is rapidly changing as the war and the resulting Western sanctions continue to tighten.
“A total shutdown, I think, could generate some political backlash from the government,” Lu said. However, she adds, “this type of fear loses out to the regime’s long-term survival fear.”
Russia’s reliance on outside technology has come to the fore as foreign companies sever ties in response to Western sanctions. Last week, Texas-based Saber and European counterpart Amadeus excluded Russia’s largest airline, Aeroflot, from their global ticketing and booking systems. The Central Bank of the country also announced that Apple Pay and Google Pay will no longer support cards of a number of Russian banks. Russia has alternatives to global technology platforms such as the Yandex search engine and the VKontakte social network, which have tens of millions of users. But Lu says it’s “not as dynamic an ecosystem as China,” which has several tech giants including Tencent (TCEHY), Alibaba (BABA) and Weibo (WB) competing with their Silicon Valley counterparts. Russian platforms also face collateral damage from the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions. Yandex warned last week that a collapse in the stock market due to sanctions could prevent it from paying its debts, and Vladimir Kiriyenko, CEO of parent company VKontakte, is among those targeted by the US government. On Monday, Dutch investment firm Prosus announced it was writing off its VK investment of about $700 million and asked its directors on the board to step down.
“The Russian people will lose the most”
While the Russian government appears more than willing to push Western technology platforms out of its digital frontiers, the same cannot be said for the Russians.
“The Russian government will benefit from Big Tech leaving,” Brandt said. “The Russian people have a lot to lose if they are denied access to non-governmental news and information and funds to organize.”
There are already signs that Russians are looking for ways to bypass Internet blockages. Five of the 10 most downloaded apps in the country last week were virtual private network (VPN) apps that allow users to create a more secure Internet connection. According to Sensor Tower, downloads of the most popular VPN apps combined grew by more than 1,300% during this period.
One way or another, the digital iron curtain seems to be falling.
Lou acknowledges that it’s hard to predict exactly how quickly the Russian Internet will be completely disconnected from the world, but recent events indicate that it could happen within “weeks or maybe even days.”