Franceinfo interviewed Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research and teacher at Sciences Po, to better understand Beijing’s position on Russia and the war.
“Cease hostilities,” “Initiate peace talks,” “Respect the sovereignty of all countries,” and “Swear off the Cold War mentality.” Chinese authorities released a document summarizing “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis” on Friday, February 24, a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. This document “is not a peace plan,” responded the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, while declaring that he did not want to “reject” it. “China reiterates the positions expressed from the beginning,” he said, noting that Chinese officials should travel to Kyiv in order for this document to be “credible.”
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How to interpret China’s position regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine? What are Beijing’s goals and what is its relationship with Russia like? Franceinfo interviewed Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research and lecturer at Sciences Po, author of the article “Beijing and the Ukrainian conflict: pragmatic opportunism” (reserved for subscribers) published in the journal Politique Internationale.
Franceinfo: How do you interpret this publication from China in view of the “political settlement” of the war in Ukraine? Volodymyr Zelenskyy, before reading these proposals, welcomed the fact that “China is starting to talk about Ukraine and is sending certain signals”, but Beijing, for example, continues to use the term “Ukrainian crisis” instead of talking about war…
Antoine Bondaz: We must already put them into perspective, because this is not the first time China has made proposals on this subject. Humanitarian aid, the nuclear issue, the sovereignty of states, the call for a ceasefire… All these elements have already been expressed, mentioned directly or indirectly by Beijing. There is no concrete proposal for these twelve points either.
It should also be noted that China is not neutral. It creates a kind of false equation between Russia and Ukraine, but Beijing continues to refuse to talk about war and still refuses to condemn Russia. His words in the text about the “integrity, independence and territorial integrity of all countries” are an element of the language used since the beginning of the war.
“It’s not about condemning Russia — China would say that — it’s about protecting us on the Taiwan issue.”
Antoine Bondaz
at franceinfo
This is a way of saying to Westerners, “How can you demand respect for Ukraine’s integrity when you are violating China’s integrity by approaching Taiwan?” However, Taiwan has never been part of the People’s Republic of China, while Crimea and Donbass are part of Ukraine. These are false equivalences used by China and need to be deconstructed.
We cannot separate Friday morning’s document from the “global security initiative” presented in Beijing on Tuesday, after an initial presentation in April 2022. It is about promoting Chinese-centric initiatives among non-Western partners in order to create alternative frameworks for shaping international Security to use Beijing. China does not want to play the role of mediator in the war in Ukraine, but rather act as a responsible power. She does not openly support Russia, her goal is to appear responsible and to distance herself from the United States.
When the text is published they explained on Twitter that many elements of those 12 points were criticisms of the United States…
It must be understood that the entire text is a criticism of the United States. China presents Washington as responsible for the continuation of the conflict and presents itself as a responsible power calling for peace. When Beijing says we must “not add fuel to the fire and escalate tensions” or declare that “humanitarian issues must not be politicized,” it is criticizing the US. China also says it is “opposed to the research and development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country.” Since the beginning of the war, a Chinese disinformation effort has aimed to spread rumors of American laboratories working on biological weapons in Ukraine.
More Chinese Statements on “Cold War Mentality” are a classic critique of the United States, not a critique of Russia at all. Also the fact “not to seek the security of a country at the expense of others, not to ensure the security of a region by strengthening or even expanding military blocs” … There is also criticism of NATO, the idea of an Atlantic alliance expanded at the expense of Russia. The notion that the West disregards the legitimate security interests of other countries is another Chinese language.
“What is happening in this war for China is not centered on Ukraine. What is happening is the development of the Sino-US rivalry.”
Antoine Bondaz
at franceinfo
How can China use the conflict to discredit the United States with non-Western countries and its own people? Because if China is a mediator and so responsible in this conflict, why hasn’t Xi Jinping met Volodymyr Zelenskyy yet?
A few days ago, Wang Yi, former head of Chinese diplomacy and director of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Foreign Ministry, met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. If Washington is viewed as Beijing’s rival, are Russia and China allied countries?
It’s not about allies, it’s about a strategic partnership. It is a convergence of political interests between two authoritarian regimes. Two regimes that put their safety first… And China is not a threat to the Russian regime, just as Russia is not a threat to the Chinese regime. China and Russia are not perfectly aligned, but these two countries are very close. There is a real strategic proximity based on a convergence of political interests.
Wang Yi’s visit to Moscow is a continuation of this relationship. The rapprochement accelerated in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, then with the authoritarian turn in Russia and China. Then came Beijing’s Sino-Russian statement on February 4, 2022, and since then Beijing and Moscow have grown ever closer. At this point in time, there is no reason for China to distance itself from Russia.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also recently expressed concern that China was supplying “arms” to Russia. Research by the German daily Der Spiegel indicates that a Chinese company wants to supply “Kamikaze” drones to Moscow for its offensive in Ukraine… How do you rate this information? Wouldn’t this be a turning point in China’s positioning?
Antony Blinken’s remarks are a way of warning China, but also reminding Europeans that China is a problem and linking the Russian question to the Chinese question.
What interest would China have in supplying some arms? If she delivers 100 drones, it won’t change the war drastically. And all his talk of responsible power that doesn’t supply arms will collapse. It will also be subject to actions … What point would there be in delivering 100 drones? A private Chinese company could apply for this permit, but I doubt China would think of supplying arms. Either it will be a mass delivery that would allow Russia to win, or Beijing will do nothing. For Beijing, does the cost of helping Russia outweigh the benefits of doing nothing? China may have an interest in helping Russia, but you have to consider the cost to China.