The essentials The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region, which has been announced as inevitable for several weeks, appears to have started on Monday, August 29th. Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian and Ukrainian geopolitics, explains the challenges of this new chapter.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson actually started on Monday, August 29th. The goal for the army? Regain control of the city that fell under Moscow rule at the start of the conflict. Carole Grimaud, professor of geopolitics, explains to us the deployment of this counter-offensive.
La Dépêche du Midi: Can you explain to us what the objective of this counter-offensive is?
Carol Grimaud: On Monday, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive began. According to the information we have, it will mainly focus on Kherson, which is the main target, but in order to ensure the security of operations, not all information has been disclosed.
According to what criteria was the time of the attack chosen?
Several criteria come into play for this counter-offensive. The first is a purely political issue in this famous referendum due to take place in mid-September. It plans to integrate the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions into the Russian Federation, as Moscow had done with Crimea a few years earlier.
The second is the weather. This region will soon experience heavy rains with mud and moisture that will slow or even prevent the Ukrainian advance. The country also needs to prove that the weapons supplied by the West are being used wisely, so the goal is for its allies to continue to trust it.
Finally, central Zaporijia is also one of the factors in this offensive. The idea is to liberate the Kherson region in order to be able to win it back. Ukraine cannot afford to lose it because it provides electricity to a large part of the country.
Carol Grimaud
Could the lack of soldiers on the Russian side also have influenced this decision?
As we know, Russia has signed several decrees to increase the number of soldiers in its ranks. The country is in trouble and is looking for volunteers everywhere: in the big cities, but also in prisons.
Vladimir Putin also spoke today with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian head of state welcomed the bond between the two countries. If this phone call comes the day after the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it’s certainly no coincidence. Russia will certainly ask Belarus for military help.
Is the offensive effective at the moment?
Since we have different sounds since the beginning of this conflict, it is very difficult to know. According to the Ukrainians, three/four villages in the Kherson region were liberated from the army. On the Russian side, the discourse is completely different. The Defense Ministry said in a press release that 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers were killed yesterday alone.
In any case, it’s still too early to say if this offensive will matter. If the Ukrainians did, they thought they had a chance. Either because Russian supplies have dried up, or because Russian troop reinforcements are fewer, the future will tell us if they were right.
If the offensive fails in the end, what happens then?
Either way, it cannot be a failure because part of Ukraine’s strategy is to show Russia that it cannot be safe on Ukrainian soil. So it’s a win on this side if we limit ourselves to that goal. If the counter-offensive is not victorious in the end, then we are heading for a long war.