Some of Donald Trump's Iowa supporters are expressing last-minute unease about his electability in the general, raising the possibility of a surprise upset by challengers Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.
Ahead of Monday's first state caucuses, Trump has a commanding lead of more than 30 points over his rivals in polls of Iowa GOP voters and is likely to win a majority of Iowa's delegates.
Haley or DeSantis would have to separate themselves from Trump supporters if they want to get the former president below the 50 percent mark — let alone pull off an unlikely upset and secure a majority of their own majority.
Trump's various legal troubles emerged during the primary, an issue Haley highlighted by frequently speaking of “chaos” in the former president's wake, while DeSantis argued that Trump's legal troubles would cost him votes in the general election.
According to a CNN report on Saturday, at least some Iowa voters who support Trump are weighing these concerns as they consider who to vote for.
The latest Iowa poll showed Haley ahead of DeSantis — but both remain well behind Trump
Ron DeSantis departs after speaking at a Northside Conservatives Club meeting at The District in Ankeny, Iowa, on Friday as arctic temperatures prevailed in the state
Pat Goodman, a 57-year-old voter from West Des Moines, told the medium that he liked all of Trump's policies but was concerned that the former president would not be able to win support from independents in the general election.
“I like all the policies he implemented as president, and I felt like his tweets were unpresidential at times,” Goodman said.
“I think that drives other voters away from him, even though I think he was an excellent president for the things he did and the things he accomplished.”
Goodman said he is considering running for DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman and staunch Trump defender who has suggested to voters that he would immediately pardon the former president if elected.
The latest Iowa poll showed Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, ahead of DeSantis, the governor of Florida.
Friday's USA Today/Suffolk poll had Trump at 54 percent, Haley at 20 percent and DeSantis at 13 percent. In other recent polls, Haley and DeSantis were tied, with both still trailing Trump by more than 30 points.
Iowa's delegates will be rewarded pro rata, making the 50 percent mark a largely symbolic victory.
Although Trump enters Monday's Iowa caucuses with outsized expectations, the size of his victory will matter if he is to deliver a knockout blow to his main rivals.
Trump campaign advisers tried to temper expectations by pointing out that the previous record victory in a competitive Republican caucus was Bob Dole's 12.8-point margin in 1988.
But four political analysts polled by Portal said Trump needed a more convincing victory, closer to the 30-point margin suggested in the polls, to blunt Haley's momentum.
A pickup truck is seen driving along a snow-covered road under an Iowa Caucus sign on Friday
Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, has edged ahead of Ron DeSantis in a new poll in Iowa ahead of Monday's caucuses
Former US President Donald Trump, who is leading in polls in Iowa, was back in a Manhattan courtroom on Thursday
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said Trump needs to win by at least 15 to 20 percentage points or risk losing any semblance of inevitability, a situation that could allow Haley or DeSantis to gain momentum at a critical point in the race win.
“This is the bare minimum for Trump.” “Anything below that shows vulnerability and is exaggerated as such,” said Heye.
Trump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita said he was confident the “intensity” of the former president's base would lead to a big victory despite the cold gripping the Midwestern state.
But he couldn't predict how the polls suggested he would win.
“A win is a win, but no one has ever won by more than … 12.8,” LaCivita told reporters Thursday.
A wildcard is voter turnout. Amid concerns that his supporters will stay home given his comfortable lead in the polls, Trump warned against complacency at recent rallies.
Another risk for Trump is a strong showing from Haley, who has been rising in the polls. Should she secure the second spot, it could establish her as a clear alternative to Trump and give her a boost in New Hampshire, analysts say.
Haley campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas declined to quantify how close she planned to get to Trump on Monday.
“We will have a strong performance in Iowa and use that momentum in New Hampshire,” she said.