The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Monday published the third part of its assessment report on global warming, which discusses measures to contain it. The IPCC’s mandate is not to give instructions, but to present the status quo and options. Read the report’s main findings here.
How the emission of greenhouse gases develops
Two-thirds of man-made greenhouse gases make up CO2 emissions, one-quarter of methane emissions. The bad news is that humanity has increased greenhouse gas emissions over the last few decades, with annual emissions higher in the last decade than in the previous decade. The good news: the year-over-year increase has slowed significantly over the two decades with the most recent annual increase of 1.3%. Perhaps the best news of the climate report is the reduction in the emission of man-made greenhouse gases.
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A third of global emissions come from the energy sector, a quarter from industry, a good fifth from agriculture and other land uses, nearly a seventh from the transport sector and a good 20th from the operation of buildings. The IPCC documents a dichotomy: in industrialized countries, greenhouse gas emissions have stagnated since 1990, in emerging and developing countries they are rising sharply. 18 countries have managed to reduce their emissions for more than ten consecutive years.
The dichotomy also means that rich countries have far more emissions because of their economic power. The richest 10% of households emit more than a third of global household emissions. Comfortable lifestyles in richer countries lead to higher CO2 emissions.
The 2 degree target is achievable
There is also a significant risk that the world will miss the Paris Climate Agreement target of limiting warming to two degrees above 19th century levels. The current development of greenhouse gas emissions in all countries together is not enough to maintain the two degrees, writes the IPCC. If warming is limited to 1.5 degrees, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak in 2025.
A “rapid acceleration” of CO2 reduction projects is also needed to achieve the two-degree target. After all, states have now announced stricter CO2 targets that were no longer included in the IPCC report, whose acceptance period ended in October last year.
Source: WORLD Infographic
If the world continues on the path it has taken in terms of energy policy, the IPCC, based on current models, predicts two more degrees of warming by the end of the century, that is, a total of three degrees, because a good one degree already it was achieved.
According to the IPCC, scenarios to limit warming to two degrees require a transformation of the energy system, which includes reducing the use of fossil fuels and “large investments” in low-carbon forms of energy – such as wind, hydropower or nuclear. potency. To meet the Paris climate target of two degrees, global emissions would have to fall by about 1.5% a year.
Negative emissions through CO2 removal
To become climate neutral, the climate council proposes “negative CO2 emissions”, ie the possibility of removing CO2 from the air, for example through afforestation, but also through technological systems. If the energy supply were to shift more towards electricity than it has been, the effect would be particularly large: CO2 produced in gas or coal plants could be extracted from the exhaust gases and discarded.
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According to the climate report, up to 12 full annual rations of global greenhouse gas emissions could be captured with negative emissions by 2100. Dumping CO2 underground (CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage) could make it possible to use sources of fossil energy “for longer”, writes the IPCC. However, the procedure met with massive resistance, especially in Germany, and so it was stopped, which the IPCC indirectly criticizes: The use of CCS around the world is “far below the path to the two-degree target”. Policy instruments can lower barriers, writes the climate council.
More power from electricity
More than a third of the energy supply would have to be covered by electricity to reach the two-degree target, the climate council describes an extreme challenge. Climate-friendly technologies would need to generate more than 90% of the world’s electricity by 2050, compared to 40% today.
For energy consumption to be based on electricity, the transport sector in particular would have to be converted. Conversion to electric drives in trucks, ships and planes still requires research, but passenger vehicles are already available. However, there are problems with recycling current battery technologies.
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There are also “growing doubts” about the availability of essential raw materials, with the IPCC alluding to the problem that rare earths for renewable energy technologies come from countries like China, which could limit access. The climate council says a considerable drop in prices for renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and lithium batteries, and a sharp increase in demand. However, renewable energy also requires expensive infrastructure.
build differently
The IPCC recognizes a particular potential for climate protection in the construction of new buildings and settlements. Significant amounts of CO2 can be saved – cement production alone generates 8% of global CO2 emissions. Here, too, the climate council sees the possibility of using CO2 storage via CCS.
The IPCC proposes to build buildings with greater durability and also to use more wood. Wood not only offers the advantage of avoiding cement, it also contains carbon that was bonded during the growth of the wood. Especially in the production of building materials such as metals, extending the lifespan would have a mild effect on CO2 emissions. In general, it is important to use material more efficiently, recycle it and avoid waste.
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In cities, more green spaces can improve the CO2 balance, adds the IPCC. Cities with short distances and the opportunity to work from home can save more emissions. The climate council also points to the possibility of containing energy demand, for example, through more efficient vehicles and infrastructure, as well as “car sharing”.
What consumers can do
On the consumer side, the World Climate Council sees potential savings of 50-80% in greenhouse gas emissions, especially in transport and through new standards for heating and thermal insulation. The IPCC writes that diets rich in vegetables rather than meat can also make a significant contribution.
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In addition to climate protection, CO2 savings would have mostly positive effects. They promote “well-being for all”, writes the IPCC. Despite the sharp increase in demand for renewable energy identified by the IPCC, the share of fossil energies has remained constant at around 80% worldwide over the past decade.
According to the IPCC, digitization, in particular, can drive change in energy supply. Energy management can be improved in all areas with sensors, the “Internet of Things”, robots and artificial intelligence. However, the IPCC points to the increasing amount of e-waste that cannot be recycled.
About conflicting goals
Otherwise, the climate council doesn’t care much for conflicting goals, it writes about “challenges” that the energy transition brings with it. In addition to limiting global warming, the UN has set 16 other goals for humanity, such as overcoming hunger and poverty, improving education and health, or the availability of cheap energy.
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Above all, the IPCC recognizes opportunities for synergy with the other goals of humanity. After reading the “Summary for Decision Makers” of the IPCC report, the question arises why the need to use fossil fuels is still so great, especially in poor countries, when according to the IPCC, moving away from coal, oil and gas almost exclusively has advantages.
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