The war between Israel and Hamas is omnipresent in the media in Iran, leaving little room for campaigning for parliamentary elections in March 2024, in which the ruling conservatives will seek to strengthen their influence.
The complex process of candidate selection has just reached a milestone: the candidacy of 28% of the 24,982 applicants was rejected by the Guardian Council of the Constitution.
How many will there be on March 1st when there is a vote on the renewal of the 290 seats in Parliament and the 88 seats in the Assembly of Experts? No one can predict this as the lists will not be final until a month in advance.
The stakes are high because the last election in 2020 was marked by the massive disqualification of reform-minded and moderate candidates, effectively reducing the election to a contest between conservatives and ultra-conservatives.
The controversies surrounding these exclusions were highlighted to explain the sharp decline in voter turnout: only 42.57% of voters went to polling stations – often schools or mosques – the lowest percentage since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The country’s highest authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called on Thursday to do everything to ensure “passionate elections” that attract Iranians.
For his part, President Ebrahim Raïssi reiterated that his government has “no candidate” for the parliamentary elections and that he is “only trying to encourage an increase in participation” through the presence of “all political groups”.
Issue
Meanwhile, Iranians have other concerns, such as: B. about their country’s possible involvement if the conflict spreads beyond the Gaza Strip, about the economic difficulties and the aftershocks of the protest movement that rocked the country after the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022.
Political scientist Ahmad Zeidabadi predicts that voters will continue to shy away from elections “if the system cannot offer them reasons for hope and change.”
He also believes that the evolution of the conflict could influence the results, as a defeat of Hamas, which is heavily backed by Iran, “would weaken the position of the government’s supporters.”
For their part, the reformers fear a repeat of the 2020 scenario and point out that several of their candidates have already been disqualified.
“They agree that even if they are well known, few reformist figures should see their candidacy approved,” stressed the reformist daily Ham Mihan.
Some of them have therefore decided not to run, such as the moderate conservative Ali Larijani, a former speaker of parliament who was Ebrahim Raïssi’s main rival for the 2021 presidential election before his candidacy was declared invalid.
In May, Mr. Larijani accused a “current” of leading a campaign to “clean up” the political space by eliminating all opponents.
Outgoing reformist MP Massoud Pezeshkian, known for his criticism of the authorities, described the first instance decision to invalidate his candidacy as “ridiculous” by “those who are trying to eliminate the people by neglect it.”
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi brushed aside this “immoral” criticism and reiterated that the government was “absolutely not” involved in the disqualification of candidates.
Departments
Since there is no influential moderate camp, the debates of the current legislative period have been characterized by “disagreements between conservatives, especially between pragmatists and radicals who have great influence within power,” emphasizes political scientist Ahmad Zeidabadi.
They were particularly divided over the merits of the bill, which increases sanctions against women who do not wear veils, whose numbers are increasing following the 2022 protest movement. This text was officially adopted by Parliament in September but has not yet entered into force.
On March 1, Iranians must also elect members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics responsible for appointing, monitoring and possibly firing the supreme leader.
President Raïssi, vice-president of this body, and the moderate former President Hassan Rouhani are candidates for a new mandate. The latter, who still has some political influence, said he had “took a difficult and steep path”.