FOCUS – Iran has been ravaged by large demonstrations since the death of this Iranian Kurd on September 16th. They are brutally repressed by the police.
Part of the Iranian population does not answer. This Saturday, December 24th, marked the hundredth day of protests following the arrest and death of Mahsa Amini in Iran. On September 16, this 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman died three days after she was arrested in Tehran by vice squads for “inappropriate dress” because her veil was “poorly donned.” Demonstrations, heavily repressed, have continued since then.
Such repression that Pope Francis, in his traditional Christmas message this Sunday, mentioned Iran for the first time among countries affected by tension and violence. According to the United Nations (UN), more than 14,000 people were arrested among the demonstrators. More than 18,000 people have already been arrested, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that monitors protests in the country. According to the same group, more than 500 protesters were killed.
Also read As a Woman in Iran: Immerse yourself in the intimacy of the invisible, crushed by the weight of traditions
So where do we stand after a little over 100 days of protest movement? Le Figaro takes stock.
SEE ALSO – Death of Mahsa Amini: Iranians of Istanbul rallied in support of mobilization in their country
Are there still demonstrations?
Since the death of Mahsa Amini, the protest has not stopped. The demonstrations continue, “in the form of protest waves,” says Mahnaz Shirali, sociologist and political scientist specializing in Iran and author of Window on Iran: The cry of a gagged people (Les Pérégrines – 2021). “In some cities the situation is not very turbulent, in others there are many demonstrations,” she adds.
Also read Iran: “A Theocracy Willing to Do Anything to Survive”
According to her, “calm has returned to the big cities”. “We have the impression that the demonstrators organize themselves differently there: they turn more to sabotage actions,” she adds. Conversely, the Iranian sociologist, who lives in France, affirms: “The protest intensifies when you move away from the capital, Tehran [située au nord du pays, NDLR] especially in disadvantaged and remote regions. As in Iranian Kurdistan (West), the region where Mahsa Amini came from.
Also read Demonstrations in Iran: “The death of Mahsa Amini woke up Iranian men”
According to the London-based information channel for Iranians Iran International, this hundredth day of protests has sparked numerous rallies in several districts of Tehran. Nevertheless, according to Iran International, demonstrations also took place in the cities of Mashhad (northeast), Sanandaj (west) and even Bandar Abbas (on the Persian Gulf, in the south).
In Iran, the protest “is not yet taking the form of mass demonstrations,” affirms David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), editor-in-chief of Orients Stratégiques magazine and author of The Islamic Republic of Iran Systemic Crisis (Harmatan – 2022).
Street rage, always led by youth, is mobile, meaning it can “start on the street corner, then pick up in the town next door”. “They surprise the police, as soon as they notice their presence, the demonstrators disappear,” summarizes Mahnaz Shirali.
This allows demonstrators to protect themselves from severe repression.
Is repression increasing?
Because it is accelerated. “The Iranian government wants to increase the risk of the demonstrators,” analyzes Clément Therme, lecturer at the Paul Valéry University in Montpellier and associated researcher at the International Institute of Iranian Studies. The repression is therefore heavy. “In the ethno-sectarian outskirts of the country, especially in the cities of Iranian Kurdistan, where the Revolutionary Guards are using heavy weapons, there is terrible cruelty,” says David Rigoulet-Roze. That is not the case in other cities where repression is not militarized.”
In big cities like Tehran, “an atmosphere of terror has set in,” adds Mahnaz Shirali, after which “some young people are kidnapped to impress other demonstrators.” “Repression is increasing” and “Iran hasn’t known crimes like this anymore,” she says, since at least 1994, the date since she began analyzing Iranian society.
Also read Faezeh Hachémi, the Outrageous Feminist Disrupting the Iranian Regime
At the same time, death sentences are increasing. Since mid-September, Iran has sentenced 11 people to death and executed two. “There are more and more summary convictions and the trials last ten minutes,” supports Mahnaz Shirali.
Also readShirin Neshat: ‘I have rarely seen Iranians so united inside and outside the country’
On the one hand, Iran’s Supreme Court ordered the death penalty-threatening Kurdish rapper Saman Seydi to be tried again after he appealed his conviction. On the other hand, many personalities have been arrested for their support of the demonstrators, such as the actress and women’s rights activist Taraneh Alidoosti. The defender of the Iranian football club Iranjavan, Amir Nasr-Azadani, is also threatened with execution for the same reasons. “Football holds an important place in Iranian popular culture, including for women who are banned from stadiums for religious reasons,” explains David Rigoulet-Roze. The regime is calculated with the players: Touching football icons would have a deep resonance in Iranian society.
On September 30, police fired on demonstrators who had gathered in Zahedan, a town in Balochistan in the south-east of the country, to protest the alleged rape of a 15-year-old girl by a police officer. At least 92 people were killed by human rights defenders on the day dubbed “Bloody Friday,” according to the NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR), based in Oslo, Norway.
SEE ALSO – Death of Mahsa Amini: the anger of the Iranians
Can the protest last?
In any case, it’s a good start. “We have a government that hasn’t negotiated since 2019 and protesters who don’t want to negotiate,” decodes sociologist Mahnaz Shirali, who recalls that the protesters wanted “to overthrow the regime from the start of the protests.” “There’s probably no going back. The regime is doomed in the long term,” says researcher David Rigoulet-Roze.
Also read Death of Mahsa Amini: It’s “All Iran Demonstrating Now”
For the moment, when the Iranian regime was undoubtedly shaken, “the breaking or turning point has not been passed.” “There could be mass demonstrations, as happened against the Shah in 1978,” he adds. Which is not the case yet. “The two parties – the protesters and the power – are therefore in a war of attrition,” he summarizes. “It’s about a revolutionary dynamic that, strictly speaking, is not yet a revolution, but could become one”.