At a time when economic, social and geopolitical changes are taking place, many proverbs and sayings are struggling to remain relevant. “Love is blind” is one of those expressions that seems outdated; It has never been more important for those looking for a partner that the other person has similar political views as them. This is one of the conclusions of sociological studies such as one from 2020, which found that only 21% of American marriages are between people with different political views. And of those, less than 4% are declared Democrats and Republicans.
The gap between right and left, between progressives and conservatives, is growing in the United States and other countries. The division reaches everyone. This is why it is so valuable to find common interests and areas where supporters of different policy options can share their diagnoses and, when possible, agree on actions. One of these coincidences may lie in the enormous value that conservatives and progressives place on the rational use of resources, albeit with some nuances.
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From left-wing positions it is emphasized that the planet’s resources are finite, that they are being depleted more and more quickly and that consumption in the public and private sectors must be reduced if we want to avoid collapse. Among the postulates of the right wing, the principle that stands out is that nothing is free, everything has a cost, which is why governments and budgets must give priority to efficient administration. With this shared common sense, it should be easy for both sides to agree, for example, to call absurd the reports related to the migration experience of tens of thousands of people.
Let’s do numbers. For a young man from a rural community in Guatemala who was unable to complete secondary education (a situation in which 80% of all young people between 25 and 35 find themselves) and whose average salary is less than nine euros per day, emigration seems in the United States to be a clear option for improvement. Other relatives who have already emigrated encourage him on social networks to do the same, arguing that the economic income is, on average, ten times higher than what they had in their communities of origin. Added to these incentives are billboard advertisements and radio spots paid for by coyotes offering their “immigration services,” promoting emigration as a way out of poverty. Renting comes with different prices (and risks) as well as payment guarantees, so houses, land and businesses become the coyote’s property if the migrant fails to pay back the agreed upon amount within a set period of time.
A young Guatemalan’s need for work and his desire to emigrate are not only fueled by the social networks of his acquaintances in the north or by coyote advertising; This also coincides with the largest number of job vacancies in recent US history.
In this context, the irregular emigration of Central American citizens through intermediaries constitutes a market that continues to grow and which some authors estimate at 2.2 billion euros. The individual costs for emigration this way can range between 5,500 and 18,000 euros, depending on the contractually agreed service and the dangers you want to avoid on the chosen route. These are costs that the migrant sees as an investment, but as with any commercial transaction, he also assumes that the deal can go wrong… even very badly. In 2022, nearly 2.5 million migrants were detained at the Mexico-United States border, 10% of whom came from Guatemala.
For these prisoners, this was the northernmost point to which their “enterprise” took them. From there they just have to try again or start the journey back to the starting point; a return to the place where all the factors that led them to emigrate have remained and to which they are now returning, accompanied by debts equivalent to the full economic income of three to five years of work in Guatemala. But there are also those who are losing money as well as their lives, like the nearly 700 migrants who died trying to reach the United States in 2022.
In the end, an unknown number of migrants manage to cross the border irregularly every day and thus start a new life. An estimated 1.7 million Guatemalans live in the United States, half of whom have informal status. On average, it takes 13.6 years for a migrant in this condition to return to their country of origin, with the high costs of uprooting and breaking family ties. Staying irregularly and working illegally also means living with the constant risk of detention and deportation. In 2022 alone, 40,633 Guatemalan migrants were deported from the United States by air. The deportees experience it as an economic and personal failure. In addition to the enormous individual costs, there are also the costs that governments incur through the repatriation process, which in the American case could be around 9,500 euros per person.
In summary, the cycle begins with the payment of the Guatemalan migrant’s debt of 9,500 euros for the coyote, the uncertain journey, the border crossing, its detention after a certain period of acclimatization, the internment, the trial and the deportation to the USA country of origin represents a further additional expense of 9,500 euros, which in this case is borne by the North American government and its taxpayers. This return trip has the same economic meaning and effect as burning 19,000 euros at the stake. A ruinous deal for anyone who looks at it, whether conservative or progressive.
At the international level and through the United Nations, states have already reached a broad consensus to promote safe, orderly and regular emigration through the Global Compact on Migration. In practice, conservative or progressive governments, whether in the North or South, are forced to promote legal immigration channels that are sufficient and provide guarantees for all parties. Rational resource management is on your side, as is the available evidence of the remarkable benefits of regular migration.
In addition to the available data, these governments’ policymakers might consider the metaphorical image of the giant bonfire fueled by both the savings of thousands of short-changed migrants and the public budget items with the least public benefit. If, out of inertia, they insist on contemplating the flames of the worst business in the world, this could at least give meaning and validity, in a more inclusive Latin American version, to the second part of the expression with which the article begins: “Love is blindness and madness accompanies it always.”
Miguel Ángel García arias He is an expert on migration and development cooperation.
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