by Andrea Marinelli and Guido Olimpio
In the Donbass, the battle could be reminiscent of that of World War II. Ukrainians have the best brigades in the south, but will they manage to escape Russian grip? The variables are endless. The weak and strong points of the two sides
Putin does not invade. Ukrainians don’t last more than a couple of days. Kyiv will face a long siege. These are some of the predictions burned in just one month of war: not criticism but observation of how mistakes can be made because of the influence of the field and men. Now that the new Russian offensive is approaching, strategists are once again divided.
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The Russian advantages
Compared to the beginning of the special operation, Moscow, starting from an advantageous position, can concentrate on the southsoutheast area. He already has large areas under control because the supply lines are not too long now. The army can use the flat land suitable for the movements of mechanized units: there is no longer the muddy terrain the rasputitsa that literally bogged down the troops in the north. At the same time, it has considerable potential for destruction on its side, consisting of artillery, surfacetosurface missiles, missile/missile batteries of all kinds. The plan is to unleash a shower of fire.
According to some estimates, Russia is attempting to impose a better level of commandcontrol, the opposite of what it has been doing for the past few weeks, when each front has been moving almost independently. A mistake says Tom Cooper due to the fact that it was the Kremlin that dictated orders to the generals. Now they have appointed Alexandr Dvornikov as leader: there are doubts about his abilities, there are people who claim that he does not really have frontline war experience, but he knows the southern theater of war and maybe he could revive a deficient leadership.
Estimates reported by the BBC are that he will have around 90 battalions under his command (another 30 are decimated), likely supplemented by fresh forces and more frequently supported by the Luftwaffe, which was fleeing when the invasion began. The plan was to have total control over Donetsk and Lugansk, the separatist and Russianspeaking regions of Donbass, where they have been fighting for 8 years, and then expand the sphere of influence. It is possible that the Russians will try to create an encirclement around the Ukrainian deployment by pounding it without closely engaging it: they can encircle it or give an exhausted contingent an escape route.
The Mariupol drama confirms this, with the soldiers now barricaded alone in the industrial area and surrounded on all sides. A possible conquest of Dnipro the country’s fourthlargest city would deprive Kyiv of an important economicindustrial lung unless the works are destroyed first. The burned vehicles can be replaced by a large, albeit outdated, arsenal: quantity can beat quality in the long run. Not much is said about the condition of the defenders, but huge casualties are taken for granted, compounded by the lack of infinite reserves.
The Ukrainian benefits
Analysts keep repeating it: the Russian replacement is bad, the disorganization remains, not even the mobilization of 60,000 reservists and resorting to quickly hired elements can change the status. Documents found on vehicles destroyed in combat show that the personnel were not of a high standard, with relative training and minimal experience. Many former Western generals confirm this: once a department has had to accept losses of 1020 percent, it is difficult to make it efficient again in a short time.
A BBC investigation claims that of the 1,083 victims admitted by Moscow, 20% were represented by officers and that 15% were equal. Men not easy to replace. Not only. Usually the attacker must have a 3 to 1 ratio to the defender: observers argue that the numbers do not help the Neotsar’s officers. The army then has to demonstrate greater coordination between the different components (land, air force), an insufficient aspect in the first phase: weaknesses are converted into strengths for the opponent.
The Ukrainians have the best brigades in the south, hardened by years of confrontation, armed with NATO intelligence, and with extensive knowledge of the arena and directions of the threat. Will they be able to have the flexibility and momentum to break free from the grip? Additionally, some analysts note that encircling Ukrainian forces by drawing a circle on the map is one thing and another to do so across an area hundreds of kilometers wide.
The lack of dense vegetation can become a handicap for endurance. Some commentators have speculated that the clash will be very different from that in the north, where physical obstacles such as blown bridges, fortified cities and mobility have stopped the invader. In Donbass it is said the battle could be reminiscent of that of World War II, with rows of armored and longrange guns. Ifs and buts abound in the analyses, the variables are infinite.
The pages
Some of the judgments are strictly technical and based on experience. Others involve an obvious next step: if the army isn’t invincible, better yet, send new weapons to Zelensky so she can thwart the enemy’s plans. Westerners, victims of false predictions and surprised by the course of the war, did not immediately give the requested war material. Now they’re catching up: A Pentagon source said 910 refueling flights are being conducted per day.
Then they responded with concrete steps and some promises to the ally to hold onto guns, tanks and fighters, means considered essential to achieve a result. An American congressman asked Chief of Staff General Mark Milley what victory would mean for Kyiv. A free and independent Ukraine with intact territorial integrity, replied General Milley. But it won’t be easy.
April 11, 2022 (change April 11, 2022 | 18:03)
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