The 360 gives you multiple perspectives on the headlines and debates of the day.
What’s up
Sweden and Finland, two European nations that have long valued strategic neutrality, appear closer to joining NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The security landscape has completely changed,” Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson told reporters last week when she met her Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin. Andersson’s recent comments mark a significant shift in her view of the value of NATO membership. Earlier last month, she said Sweden’s entry into the alliance would “further destabilize this part of Europe and increase tensions.”
Andersson’s change of heart is an indication that the views of citizens of both countries are changing in response to the constant stream of terrible news from Ukraine. In a recent poll, 68% of Finns said they support NATO membership, up from just 24% last year. According to a poll published this week, for the first time ever, a majority of Swedes say they support accession.
Although both nations have deep cultural and economic ties to Europe, Finland and Sweden have historically declined to seek NATO membership — even though more than a dozen countries in Eastern Europe have joined the alliance since the fall of the Soviet Union. Sweden’s resistance is rooted in its policy of neutrality, which dates back to the early 19th century. After repelling a Soviet invasion during World War II, Finland established a formally neutral position, mainly to avoid provoking further aggression.
Founded after World War II, NATO is a military alliance built on the principle of collective defense – meaning that all NATO countries agree to defend any individual member who is attacked. Russia views NATO as a direct threat, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said the possibility that Ukraine might join motivated his decision to launch the Russian invasion. Russia’s foreign ministry warns of “serious military and political consequences” if Sweden and Finland join the alliance.
The story goes on
Why is there a debate
Proponents say there are clear advantages to admitting Sweden and Finland to NATO. They argue the invasion serves as a startling reminder of how dangerous it can be for countries on Russia’s borders. If they were NATO members, the two Nordic countries would have the power of some of the world’s most powerful militaries – including the US – as a bulwark against any Russian invasion.
Some defense analysts believe that NATO and its members have much to gain by including Sweden and Finland. Though both nations are relatively small, experts say their militaries are still impressive. The two countries would also provide a valuable strategic base along Russia’s north-western flank, particularly along Finland’s 830-mile border with Russia. Others say NATO expansion is another non-military means of punishing Putin for his attack on Ukraine.
However, skeptics fear possible retaliation from Putin, especially at a time when he is vulnerable and prone to flailing. Some also argue that increasing NATO’s presence along Russia’s border would create opportunities for conflict that could escalate into another world war.
There are also those who believe that NATO should not exist at all. Some on the right believe the alliance allows smaller nations to neglect their own defense capabilities, knowing great powers will come to their rescue. Far-left observers, on the other hand, say that anything that encourages military force over non-violent forms of cooperation ultimately harms the world.
What’s next
Two important steps must be taken before Sweden and Finland can become part of NATO. First, their parliaments would have to formally vote in favor of accession. Then the parliaments of each of the current 30 NATO countries would have to approve their membership – a process that has taken about a year in the recent past.
perspectives
supporter
The war in Ukraine made it clear why Sweden and Finland should join
“Who can blame the Finns and Swedes for wanting to jump right in? … After seeing what’s happening to Ukraine, they don’t want to be the next Ukraine. And it’s clear that Putin doesn’t want to challenge any of the NATO countries directly.” —Kevin Baron, Editor-in-Chief of Defense One, to MSNBC
Russia is probably not ready to go to war to keep Sweden and Finland out of NATO
“Putin views Finland and Sweden differently than Ukraine because of their different histories. Putin sees Ukraine as part of an imaginary “Russian world”. Sweden and Finland are therefore less comparable to Ukraine apart from their proximity to Russia.” – Thomas O. Falk, Al Jazeera
Admitting new NATO members is a solid, non-military way of punishing Russia
“It would be a dramatic reversal of fate and would demonstrate the agility of liberal-democratic countries to employ the diplomatic element of power well below the threshold of war, that gray area where Russia — and, for that matter, China — has been in the more recent ones Past so nimble.” — Michael Miklaucic, Der Hügel
Both countries would bring many benefits to the NATO alliance
“Finland and Sweden would not be Allianz free riders. Their strategic location in the Baltic could be crucial in a larger conflict with Russia. Finland is already outstripping its weight militarily, and wealthy Sweden can afford its announced increases in defense spending. A secure Europe, better able to defend itself, serves American interests.” — Editorial, Wall Street Journal
Ukraine reminds us of our responsibility to protect one another
“Ukraine is a turning point in European security. The real threat to other member states leaves us all with no choice but to re-examine how we view our responsibilities to each other.” — Editorial, Irish Times
NATO membership would have saved Ukraine
“If only NATO had been more popular with Ukrainians and properly marketed as a guarantee of security against Russia, Ukraine could have been saved from eight or more years of violence and suffering. The lesson we must learn is that NATO has not expanded far enough or fast enough.” – Daniel Ramallo, National Interest
skeptic
Russia could attack to keep Sweden and Finland away
“Would Russia seriously consider attacking Finland or Sweden? While it may seem unlikely, the West should not underestimate the possibility that Mr Putin, feeling isolated, cornered and pressed for time, could make an otherwise hasty decision.” – Sascha Glaeser, Washington Times
A larger NATO presence on Russia’s border increases the likelihood of a catastrophic conflict
“Finland – if it allows NATO bases, troops and weapons within its borders – could permanently exacerbate the hair-raising environment that now exists between the Kremlin and Washington.” — Michael Hirsh, Foreign Policy
Post-Cold War NATO expansion inspired Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
“If there hadn’t been a decision to move NATO east to include Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass would be part of Ukraine today, and there wouldn’t be a war in Ukraine.” — John Mearsheimer, political scientist, to New yorkers
NATO makes the world less secure
“To the extent that this leaderless security pact has made war easier, more salable, and more attractive to Western leaders than diplomacy, the alliance was a commitment to peace and stability.” – Chase Madar, The Nation
Greater militarism will never create a path to peace
“Europe is going ahead and arming itself to the teeth to protect itself. … So therefore, [Russia says] we must arm ourselves to the teeth to defend against this extraordinarily powerful force attacking NATO. I mean, if anyone from space saw that, they’d burst out laughing.” — Noam Chomsky, linguist and political commentator, to Intercept
The US should not commit to protecting even weaker countries
“We have to understand that nothing happens in a vacuum and that the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO is a burden for the entire alliance. … And it adds another potential risk to the United States.” – Daniel Davis, foreign policy expert, on The Hill
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