After three terms in office, will Justin Trudeau leave before the next election? Nobody knows. Maybe not even him.
But the more the polls confirm the Conservatives’ lead, the more the question arises. First, within the Liberal Party of Canada. This is a very bad omen for the Prime Minister.
A major salvo came this week from Percy Downe, a senator and long-time Liberal. With his visor raised and his words barely concealed, he discusses Justin Trudeau’s possible departure next year. A farewell that he obviously particularly wants.
While he thanks Mr. Trudeau for the Liberal Party of Canada’s victory in 2015 against all odds, he sharply criticizes him for his management of public finances. He thinks they are irresponsible and too wasteful.
His wish? May the next leader move the PLC back to the “center” of the ideological spectrum. He believes the only way is to fight Pierre Poilievre more effectively.
There is no doubt that the sting hurts. The love of power and the hope of retaining it for a fourth term certainly have something to do with it. It is undeniable.
For some nervous liberals, it also has to do with the very real fear of losing even more at the hands of Pierre Poilievre, an ultra-right ideologue. Make no mistake.
collateral damage
It is true that public calls for a leader’s resignation, direct or indirect, are rare but possible.
In 1987, Gérald Godin, then MP and former PQ minister, publicly called for his resignation in the face of Pierre-Marc Johnson’s disastrous leadership. Which was done quickly.
However, unlike the PLC, the PQ was no longer in power. A coup against the opposition is one thing. Against a sitting prime minister it is much more complicated.
However, there has already been collateral damage since Percy Downe’s release.
Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, now says he has not ruled out running for the PLC’s next leadership. At least if the position of the boss becomes vacant…
He even said as much at the Globe and Mail. Free translation: “I am not a professional politician. Those who are often tend to have a very simplistic view of the markets [financiers]. They don’t understand how decisions are really made.”
Sharp arrow
As luck would have it, this sharp arrow appears to be aimed at Justin Trudeau himself. Hence the killer question.
Will Justin Trudeau be able to turn the negative tide in the polls? In the short term, also to prevent calls for his departure from increasing and ambitious people raising their hands to signal their interest in succeeding him?
In February 1984, his own father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, then prime minister at the end of his fourth term, announced his resignation after a legendary “walk in the snow.”
Many are now wondering whether his son Justin might do the same 40 years later next February.
The very fact that the issue is being raised by the Liberals while Mark Carney shows signs of life presents a major challenge to the Liberal leader.
A month ago I wrote that Justin Trudeau was experiencing his annus horribilis. Apparently the year isn’t over yet…
