Several sources in Washington told CNN that the US President’s statements made to a small committee were not based on new information.
During the night from Thursday to Friday, US President Joe Biden wanted to get particularly serious. Speaking at a Democratic fundraiser organized in a New York apartment, the White House tenant warned of the threat of a nuclear “apocalypse” that he said had never been greater since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
No new information
But are these threats really part of an irreversible escalation of tensions that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons for the third time since 1945? For Lova Rinel, researcher on nuclear deterrence, the statements made by Joe Biden, which are part of the nuclear rhetoric, are to be separated from what is really happening in the operational area, the so-called “strategic dialogue”.
“Strategic dialogue is military implementation. For example, are the bombers armed? These are discussions. And the various authorities confirm it: we are still talking to the Russian authorities on the issue. Level, so there is no increase in nuclear alert.” said the researcher BFMTV.
Following concerns over Joe Biden’s remarks, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre was forced to issue an update this Friday: “We have no reason to adjust our own stance on nuclear weapons, nor do we have any indication that we will.” Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons immediately.”
Same story on the page of many senior American officials contacted by CNN. On condition of anonymity, they all assured that there was no evidence that Vladimir Putin intended to use nuclear fire or that he had taken any steps to that effect. Several senior officials were even surprised by the particularly serious tone Joe Biden used Thursday night when no new information reached the intelligence community.
concern among westerners
But the words of the American President illustrate the concern that is rising in Western law firms. And for several reasons. First, because Vladimir Putin has repeated many times since the invasion of Ukraine began that Russia would not hesitate to use all the weapons at its disposal should the situation deteriorate.
Currently, the Moscow army has suffered major setbacks in the operational sphere since September and the launch of a particularly effective counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. This is evidenced by the recapture of Lyman, where Russian troops allowed themselves to be surrounded.
While the start of the offensive in February was marked by a united front of Russian elites behind their president, the first contradictory voices are becoming loud. According to the Washington Post, a very close adviser to Vladimir Putin, who is among his inner circle, recently told him that things were not going in the right direction. For his part, Chechen autocrat Ramzan Kadyrov proposed the use of strategic nuclear weapons on the battlefield to defuse the situation.
Can Vladimir Putin decide alone?
Would a cornered Vladimir Putin be more unpredictable? According to Russian nuclear doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons can only be justified by an attack that threatens the very existence of the Russian Federation. However, the current situation in Ukraine does not endanger the existence of Putin’s country, although it is up to him to define the term “existential threat”.
It also remains to be seen whether, under Russia’s nuclear decision-making scheme, a simple decision by Vladimir Putin is enough to initiate a strike. In Soviet times, such a decision had to be made jointly with the Minister of Armed Forces and the Chief of the General Staff. But nothing indicates that this principle was maintained with the fall of the USSR.
For researcher Lova Rinel, the current situation should be analyzed in terms of Russia’s nuclear strategy. “It’s part of their way of expressing themselves. Vladimir Putin, his entourage, spend their time blowing hot and cold. You play incendiary firefighters. This has one goal: to destabilize NATO, which is Russia’s enemy. They are trying to get the world on edge for us to stop sanctions and logistical support to Ukraine. It’s a nuclear dialectic showdown,” says the researcher.
Asked about the issue in Prague, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron did not agree with Joe Biden’s recent remarks and refused to do “political fiction”.