After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, many analyzes and explanations were presented: the will to power of Russia and Vladimir Putin, NATO enlargement perceived as a threat, American imperialism resurrects the ghost of the Cold War… On social networks a very shared analysis in in recent days, he attributes the conflict’s origins to Ukraine’s wealth, which the Kremlin would like to see.
If it is true that Kyiv has significant natural resources, agricultural production, minerals and metals, or even energy reserves are sufficient reasons to justify conflict? Update on Ukraine’s economic assets and the interests they represent or not for Moscow.
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Undisputed agricultural force
Thanks to the vast area of arable land, the largest in Europe outside Russia, and especially thanks to the very fertile black soil, Ukraine is undoubtedly an agricultural power. Its production of wheat ranks in the top ten in the world. For all cereals (wheat, corn, barley, etc.), their production has continued to grow over the last thirty years.
The country is also at the forefront of oilseeds (sunflower, rapeseed, soybeans, etc.) and very clearly focused on the international market. Thus, Ukraine has become a leading supplier of corn to China. The cumulative value of the main exports of cereals and oilseeds from Ukraine reaches 16 billion dollars (about 14.5 billion euros) and exceeds that of Russian exports (10 billion dollars or about 9 billion euros) in 2019.
Located in the heart of a transport network converging with major Black Sea ports, Ukraine also benefits from a preferred geographical location for exports. “If Russia takes over even northern and eastern Ukraine, it will take over most of Ukraine’s production,” said Marin Rafrai, an economist with the French Chamber of Agriculture. , which explains that in the wheat market Moscow will have a colossal strike force, as nearly a third of the world’s traded volumes. Russia can also make it a tool of geopolitics, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, which are major points for Russian and Ukrainian exports.
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Diverse, but not very strategic minerals and metals
With the equivalent of 3 billion euros in exports of mineral ore iron in 2019, Ukraine overtook its Russian neighbor (1.9 billion). But for Yves Jegurell, owner of the raw materials chair at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts (CNAM), this resource is not strategic, as Australia and Brazil already monopolize the market (more than 70% of them), with very well-developed processes. and high value-added steels.
Of course, “metals, the basis of military power, are subject to interstate clashes due to restrictions on the availability of so-called” critical “metals”, said the expert. Manganese, cobalt, lithium or nickel are some of the metals with remarkable properties, whose supply difficulties can be punished for industries. But Ukraine does not exploit significantly, although its reserves are among the top ten in the world titanium and on manganese – while Russia is already a large mining country, as for nickelWhat ‘aluminumon titanium and on palladium.
(potentially) energy-rich bowels
Head of the Seventh World Reserve coalHowever, in the Donbass coal basin, however, Ukraine represents an extremely small share of world exports (0.1% compared to 16.3% for Russia in 2019). The country, which was one of Europe’s largest producers during World War II, suffered from aging facilities and was severely damaged by the 2014 conflict with Russia, with the latter finally receiving the largest share of Marlet . As the world’s third-largest coal exporter, Russia will have no real interest in exploiting Ukraine’s reserves, especially since it will have to invest in new infrastructure as Russia struggles to fund its recovery.
Ukraine has the second largest reserves of gas in Europe (one third of the total), just behind Norway. But its production is not enough to cover the consumption of the country, which is ultimately a net importer of its energy supplies. “Ukraine may have untapped resources in the Black Sea. But Russia would already recover 80% of its potential oil and gas reserves after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, said Pierre Laboue, a researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
Finally, on the nuclear front Ukraine has 2% of the worlduranium – four times less than Russia. Significant resources, but again difficult to exploit at a competitive price, both in terms of extraction and in terms of conversion to fuel. Kyiv is currently importing its fuel from the Russians, but also from the Americans since 2015.
The question arises in the same conditions for butter, with which Russia is full (its exports are worth 180 billion euros in 2019, against only 450 million for Ukraine) and which must inject huge sums to exploit more of it in its neighbor. Ukrainian researchers estimate the required investment at about 14 billion euros.
In short, Ukraine’s resources are not in themselves of decisive interest in motivating the invasion, as their share of world production remains minimal compared to other producers. “This interest is even less strategic for a country like Russia, which is so rich in raw materials and has had trade with Ukraine that has allowed it to acquire these resources,” said Pierre Laboue. However, in the context of sanctions, he added, controlling some of these resources may be of tactical interest: power of Russia. With the risk of recession in the Russian economy after the sanctions, any bonus is good to take. »
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